Wuhan City Natural Gas Load Forecasting And Peak Shaving Methods Optimizing

For a large city to say, natural gas supply system is a complex system. Because the natural gas load changing with the time, so the work and manage for the gas load should be regulated too. Gas load have asymmetry for many influencing factors, especially the district of seldom industry customers. At the times of planning and construction, usually for fill the gas user in the high time, facility of regulating the peak should be invest much fund. If the changing for the gas load can be forecasted exactly, the gas supply and production can be arranged in reason according the load forecasting, at the same time we can reduce the investment of the facility for regulating the peak and improve the level of regulation.This paper makes a deep study on the rule of the gas, divided on the time in main, analysis them from the quality and the quantity, the result provide the evidence for the choice of gas load index and forecasting methods.When putting the Artificial Neural Network into Wuhan gas load forecast, forecast analysis result show that predictive methods and models of the city gas load are right enough. The model resulted from the practical calculations has good adaptability and accuracy.The article introduces the gas storage of NG and analyses that which gas storage way might be used in Wuhan. According to the introduction to gas peaking and the analysis of the gas peaking methods of other cities, the paper concludes that the suitable gas peaking ways of Wuhan city is building high pressure pipeline and connecting high pressure pipeline into ring.