On Methodology Of Attribute Analysis For Private Car Users

Travel behavior theory is one of the most important theories in the area of traffic management and control. Travel behavior research is a basic work for the urban traffic programming, construction and management. Under the background of economic soaring and the number of private cars increasing quickly, this paper takes private car users as research object, in order to search available analysis method of travel behavior, and eliciting the travel rule and characteristics of private cars, which has very important reference value for us to constitute and implement private cars manage policy, and to solve the traffic congest problem.Surround the core content of the methodology of attribute analysis for private car users, according to resident travel behavior survey, and taking the private car users' as the study object, the paper has done some works about the private cars' travel attribute study and method analysis, the details of the research is as following:(1) By reading the information about travel behavior research abroad, the paper has summarized the advantages and disadvantages of the travel behavior analysis methods studies outland and inland. After that, basing on the characters of private cars travel attribute, the paper tries to use multiple linear regression model, disaggregate choice model and proportional hazards model to analyze it.(2) According to the factors of immanency and exterior, the paper has divided the travel attribute of private cars into two parts, latent immanency attribute and behavior attribute. Based on the results of above, by analyzing the influence effect of subjective factors and impersonality factors, the paper has done some more work about behavior attribute, dividing it into subjective decision-making attribute and impersonality decision-making attribute. This is propitious to find out the travel rule and characteristics of private cars.(3) The paper analyzes the differences between trip and trip chain based on the research results of scholars outland and inland. At meanwhile, according to the integration viewpoint, the paper expounds trip chain analysis method and based on home trip chain analysis method, making the research of travel behavior analysis transferred from point to chain. This is propitious to find out the influences of each decision during the whole travel process.(4) By using multiple linear regression model, taking the private, family, and social economic property as influence variables, this paper structures private cars travel rate model and private cars of family travel rate model. By quantificationally analyzing the influence of each variable on the travel rate, it elicits the travel rule and characteristics of private cars. After checking up the precision of the model and the parameters estimated, the results show that multiple linear regression model is a good method for analyzing the travel rate of private cars.(5) On the basis of discrete method, the paper has constructed a mode choice model of private car users using MNL model, and introducing the analytical method of based on home trip chain, aiming to maximum the trip-chaining utility, the paper constituted a mode choice model based on trip-chain by utilizing NL model. The paper taking the gender, age, month income and so on of private car users as influence variables, discussed the statistic characteristics of the model from four aspects: Significance test of the variable, model unlikelihood ratio test, Likelihood Ration Index, hit ratio. Then the paper elaborates the meaning of regression coefficient. According to the results of the model, and the precision of the parameter, private car users' choice behavior of mode can be explained and forecasted by discrete choice model.(6) Cox's Proportional Hazards Regression Model is introduced in this paper for constructing private car users driving departure time selection model, and for analyzing different influence factors is how to affect private car users' driving departure time selection behavior, then a continuous distribution model about private car users' driving quantum and relevant time is given in the paper. By taking the intention as the delamination control variable, it is feasible for us to analysis the diversity about private car users' driving departure time selection behavior. According to the integrality of the data, the precision of the parameter, and the results of the model, it shows that Cox's Proportional Hazards Regression Model is a good method for analyzing the driving departure time selection of private cars.