Research On The Travel Mode Choice Behavior Of Residents In Small And Medium-Sized Cities Based On Trip Chain

Recently,with the rapid development of new urbanization in China,medium and small cities have become an important carrier for new urbanization,and their numbers have increased year by year.At the same time,due to the dramatic increase in the population of large cities in China,more and more people are gradually moving to small and medium-sized cities because of the increasingly serious "big city disease" and life pressure,which have a great impact on the population and transportation in small and medium-sized cities.The traffic problems in small and medium-sized cities have also become increasingly prominent.Due to its specific development situation and city scope,small and medium-sized cities have their own characteristics of road systems,transportation systems,and residents' travel characteristics.Therefore,investigating the traffic patterns in small and medium-sized cities plays an important role in promoting the development of these cities.From the perspective of the travel chain,this paper uses the disaggregate model theory to establish a travel mode selection model for residents in small and medium-sized cities,analyzes the effect of different variables on the accuracy of the model,and conducts scientific analysis and quantitative interpretation of the impact of travel chain factors on travel choice behavior.The main research content includes the following aspects:1.Based on defining the scope of small and medium-sized cities and summarizing the evolution process of small and medium-sized cities,the characteristics of roads,traffic modes and residents' travel in small and medium-sized cities are compared and analyzed.This paper analyzes the basic characteristics of trip chain in medium and small cities from three aspects: the number of trip chain,the length of trip chain and the replacement coefficient of trip chain.Combined with the analysis of the types of trip chain,the travel chain of medium and small cities is divided into commuting and noncommuting travel chain.Simple and complex chain and public transportation and other travel chain are three types,which lay a foundation for the study of trip mode choice behavior from the perspective of trip chain.2.According to the disaggregate model theory,the characteristics of travelers,characteristics of travel mode factors and travel chain characteristics are selected.An NL model with the travel chain type as the upper layer and the travel mode selection as the lower layer is selected.At the same time,the factors that influence the comparison of different models and travel modes are selected.For the influence of the mode of choice of travel mode,two comparative models are established: the MNL model considering the factors of residents' travel chain and the MNL model without considering the factors of residents' travel chain.3.Based on the survey data of urban residents in Bijie,the statistical analysis of residents' travel characteristics and travel chain characteristics shows that as the number of trip chains increases,the number of travelers will gradually decrease,which take up 80.53% of the number of total travelers when the number of travel chains is once and twice,with the average number of travel of 1.75 times/day.With the increase of the length of travel chain,the proportion of travel chain is gradually reduced.When the length of travel chain is below 3(including 3),it accounts for 91.10% of the total number,with the average travel chain length of 1.82.Compared with large cities,the average number of trip chains in small and medium-sized cities is usually larger than that in large cities,but the average trip chain length is smaller than that in large cities.4.According to the model in this paper,the NL model considering the factors of residents' travel chain,the MNL model considering the factors of residents' travel chain,and the MNL model without considering the factors of residents' travel chain are used to compare the goodness and the parameter test.The results show that the coefficient ratios are 0.45,0.31,and 0.29 respectively.This suggests that the NL model based on the travel chain is more interpretive than the other two models,and the model accuracy is higher.It can accurately reflect the personal characteristics of travelers,characteristics of travel plans,and the effect of travel chain characteristics on decision making of travel models.