Risk Analysis And Modeling Method For Operation Of Storm Drainage System

Storm drainage system is one of the most important infrastructures in a city. There exist a certain amount of ignorance and uncertainties during the operation process in the system which imperil health and security of human being.Risk analysis is a promising science full of great importance in practical application which can evaluate the degree of risks in engineering,and then to find the way to increase capital and improve on management for reducing risks,as well as to supply references to decision-making.Therefore,it is necessary to apply risk analysis and simulation method to operation of storm drainage system.This dissertation focuses on the waterlog risk under the circumstances of hydraulic overloading.Based on the discussion about the characteristics of the drainage system and modeling using SWMM,the advanced technique in the field of risk management integrated with the hydraulic modeling technique is used for analysis and simulation of risks during the operation process of the storm drainage system, above of which makes an innovative research on this topic.Risk analysis provide the basis for sustainable development and security management of urban water system.In this dissertation,the current research in the application of risk analysis to urban water system in mainland and overseas are reviewed.Theoretics and methods of risk analysis are analyzed.Based on the operation and management characteristic of the system,risks are classed according to the cause,then the method of scenarios analysis is applied to risk identification,and sensitivity analytical method with comprehensive fuzzy method provide techniques for risk assessment.Besides,the technique process of risk analysis and research system to storm drainage system is set up.The technique support of the modeling to risk analysis is discussed,furthermore,the uncertainties of the model parameters and the hydraulic characteristics of the objects in the system are explained.Based on the above,risk index is used to describe the functional risk status of the system,and the method to calculate the functional risk coefficient is set up,which provide a way to the further application of risk analysis.In the end,a case of risk analysis and simulation in storm drainage operation is given.In this case we can find that the results of hydraulic modeling and risk analysis can be used as aids in the decision-making process of integrated risk management,and help to establish and select effective measures for management and then to perfect the management of the drainage system,which also validate the necessity of risk analysis.A combination of the techniques for risk analysis and hydraulic modeling can better reflect the impact degree of multi-factors for system operation,and can be used for reference to modeling and risk analysis of other cities and regions,which is feasible to be promoted into practical applications.Such two kinds of techniques provide supplement and reference to each other,and provide ways and means for reducing risks and the integrated management of network.