Study On The Prediction And Optimization Method For Development Scale Of Regional Highway Network

Reasonable development scale of highway network is the basic parameter which used to guide the development of road network planning .Although many scholars have get some fruitful researching results on the scale of highway network in recent years, due to the scale of regional road network is effected by more complex factors ,and they mainly confirm the scale of highway network on the experience sum up and simple analogy so that the reason lack of reliability and adaptability , thus the current theory of the scale of the regional road network remains has many shortage and not to be perfect . Therefore, this article aims to improve the current method of determining the development scale of highway network and to enable it guide the different region road network construction and development.From the point of view of system engineering, This article first analyzed the influencing factors of the road network scale basing on the theory of road traffic and socio-economic interaction, then established the hierarchical structure model of influencing factors of the road network scale . According to foreign developed road network development process, the paper discussed the internal rule of the development of highway network, then it appraised advantages and disadvantages of several existing forecasting methods of road network scale .In order to improve forecast accuracy and increase the reliability of the results ,the paple founded the model of highway network scale prediction based on BP neural network and Markov chains to forecast the amount of highway network in Hubei Province, the forecast test results prove that the model has a high accuracy and reasonableness. Finally, the paper defined the structural optimization objective and established the multi objective programming model including the policy influence to reasonable collocate the hierarchical of highway.the paper calculate the highway scale and reasonable hierarchical organization of highway for the year of 2010,2015 and 2020 in Hubei Province .