Evaluation And Prediction Method Of Asphalt Pavement Performance In Expressway Based On Combination Theory

The pavement performance evaluation and prediction is an important part of the pavement management system. It plays a vital role of deciding maintenance and rehabilitation strategies, formulating maintenance project and arranging the maintenance costs reasonably. There have been many studies about these areas in foreign countries, and recently our country also has got a great success by researching and studying. However, since research about the pavement management system starts a little late in our country, many studying models and methods are being exploring period, so it is rather weak, and doesn't form a mature theory and method.Most of the traditional asphalt pavement performance evaluation and prediction are about the common highway. It mainly aim at formulating the pavement maintenance project, arranging the maintenance costs, decide the pavement maintenance and rehabilitation strategies and comparing the different pavement status, Although there are some forecasting and evaluating models about the high grade highway, the result of these models are not satisfied because of the complicated factors that influence pavement performance and the new characteristics of the high grade highway's performance status in our country. The thesis takes expressway maintenance as its aim and tries to use the combination theory in pavement performance evaluation and prediction to improve the precision.Since the new characteristics of the expressway, the traditional evaluation index is not fit for pavement evaluation and prediction. According to the detailed analysis of pavement performance status, the thesis decides the pavement performance evaluation and prediction index which aimed at expressway maintenance. It also analyzes the influencing factors and its changing trend of every index systematically, and poses three pavement performance prediction models, which as follows: gray system theory model, exponential smoothing model and trend forecast model. As different prediction method including different information, the thesis uses different methods to improve the prediction precision. In order to considering much more factors that influence pavement performance into the prediction model, the thesis adopts the analytic hierarchy process of qualitative and quantitative. Through this method, it brings some pavement influencing factors which can not be measured into the combination model by proportion. On evaluation, the thesis raises three regression models that focus on the expressway new index. According to the characteristics of the different models, it simulates expert's thought during evaluating process, and finally uses the degree of grey incidence to decide the proportion of these three models to evaluate the pavement performance. On the basis of living examples'analysis, it proves that the combination methods and models that the thesis poses are feasible in theoretic. It can also provide expressway manager with direction and help in pavement maintenance.