The Theory And Practice Of The Flood Forecast Programme Of The Wenyuhe Researvoir Shanxi Province

As the development of the technology, the information age hasbecome a world word tendency. The high speed development and theinfluence of the information technology have changed the modernhydraulic development. The hydraulic information which exploit andmake use of the hydraulic information resource depended on the moderntechnology, include the collection,translation,storage,processing andexploitation the hydraulic information. It raises the application and sharelevel, so that increases the efficiency and the standard level sufficiently.our county faces the severely hydraulic resource shortage. The increaseneeds of the production and life water put more higher demand to theexploitation. How to supply the sufficient and stable water resource forthe national economy and the social development is major and urgencysubject as a schedule to be discussed . The use of the flood resource as themost potential exploitation path is being experienced and researched bymodern hydraulic people.We must search the regularity, the path and the using condition of the flood variation, establish the mechanism of the flood resource, and push the work of the flood resource efficiently to realize the flood resource. This study is based on one of the foundations of the flood resource (the technique method of the flood forecasting) to research it.Based on the practice of the Wenyu river basin that belongs to semi-arid and sub-humid area, we study the domestic and foreign model of the traditional hydraulic. The research chooses the Xinanjiang model, synthesis runoff yield model and the modified Xinanjiang model as the runoff forecast model. We combined with the confluence and river calculus model, and then establish the different program of the flood forecast which is applied Wenyu river reservoir basin. We analysis and compare the structures of the runoff models according to forecast outcomes. the outcomes indicate that the synthesis runoff yield model and the modified Xinanjiang model are apt to the semi-arid and subhumid area from the structure and the practical application.In the course of the modified traditional forecast model, we adopt the principle of error backward propagation, back calculate continuously, adjust the major parameters of the flood forecast continuously, and make the error minimum. We realize the optimization automatically of the significant parameter of traditional forecast model, and introduce the correlated improved program. The research outcomes indicate that this adjust method realized the improvement of the flood forecast accuracy. That is the originality innovation and also the important content of the research.Because of the complexity and the dynamic of the hydraulic and the water resource system, research extended continuously and impacted efficient increased, the original research method and path became difficulty more and more. After that this research adopt the artificial neural network which is influence in the world to the flood forecast caculat the Wenyu river basin, and establish the ANN forecast model.This research realizes establishment of the conceptual hydraulic forecast model and automatic optimization of the hydraulic forecast model parameter with Visual Basic 6.0 language. The computer program of the ANN is realized by VB and Matlab language. The system adopts the SQL sever data base.The achievement of this research is benefit for the study and realization of the flood resource in the semi-arid and sub-humid area. It is the important technical method for the flood resource and also the object demand for the development of the modern hydrology development.How to use the modern technology method to realize the organic combinzation of the water element autumatic measurment system, the flood forecast system and the water resources scheduling system. How to make the definited hydraulic resources to service the national economic construction is necessary for the next study work.