Research On The Method And Application Of Flood Forecasting And Flood Dispatching Optimization Based On A Coupled Atmospheric-Hydrological

Nowadays, Flood forecasting is an important issue of modern hydrology. But there were a lot of errors in flood forecast, because of the limit of scientific and technological level or complicated meteorological hydrological environment. The existing flood forecasting model does not generally applicable to all of river basin.So according to their own Hydrological and geological conditions, the various basins need to select the appropriate model. Sometimes, a single model cannot meet the requirements of reservoirs, so they need to combine different models. The traditional flood forecasting model had some problems such as short foreseen period. If the reservoir would use the weather forecast information, the earliness of flood forecasting can be prolonged. In this paper, the mainly five problems will be discussed and researched:Firstly, how to calculate the numerical forecasting information easily from the picture. Secondly, how to create a flood forecasting scheme must suitable to the basin by selecting an appropriate model and a method of combining and improved. Thirdly, errors of meteorological forecast information and actual rainfall distribution will be analyzed in the basin. Then, the meteorological information error will be reduced in correction interpretation method. Fourthly, the period of flood forecasting were prolonged by combining the interpreted GFS precipitation numerical forecasting information with the flood forecasting model. Fifth. Research on how to use flood forecasting results in flood operation.Taking HuanRen basin as the research background, the specific work and innovation are as follows:(1) For the purpose of numerically calculating various types of precipitation forecasts picture. To analyze of the characteristics of various meteorological precipitation forecast picture, a set of algorithms to develop computational procedures and visualization software will be designed.(2) The appropriate runoff model was chosen by analysis Hydrological and geological environment of HuanRen basin. In this paper, the final selection was Xin’An river runoff model and unit hydrograph, a set of rules was mined in this study to choose the unit hydrographs with the methods of data excavation and historical hydrology information. The rules can make accurate flood forecasting results and improve the flood forecasting program. (3) This research chosen the Historical GFS precipitation forecast information as meteorological forecast information input. At the same time. the Precipitation distribution characteristics of HuanRen basin were analyzed and GFS precipitation numerical forecasting information was modified by statistical methods. It made accurate GFS precipitation numerical forecasting information more accurate(4) The period of flood forecasting were prolonged to30-72hours by combining the interpreted GFS precipitation numerical forecasting information with the flood forecasting model. It was detected by flood data from2006to2010years. The pass rate of flood forecasting was70%.(5) According to the different end water restrictions, scheduling scheme was mined by combining the results of flood forecast with the dynamic programming. The actual flood scheduling is formulated with using this scheme. At the same time, the scheduling schemes used in Real-time correction. The results showed that the proposed method could achieve better results. Finally, a good result was also proved in simulated scheduling of2010。(6) Finally, the achievements and defects of paper were summarized; the future research direction was prospected.