Research On Rail Traffic Flow Forecasting Base On Cellular Automata

In this thesis ,cellular automata theory is used to study some complex phenomena of rail transportation system. The phenomena of car following, train following operation and delay propagation of trains in road traffic and railway traffic are researched. The inherent law and forming mechanism of these traffic phenomena are discussed. Train control system mainly includes: Fixed block system and moving block system. At present, fixed block system is generally in use ,but the moving block system can effectively reduce the interval between trains in blocks and stations, and improve the carrying capacity of rail traffic. Moving block system has become the development trend of train signal control system .Combined with the characteristics of rail transportation system and cellular automata model, moving block system and fixed block system of the cellular automata model are established to simulate rail traffic flow and analysis the rail traffic flow feature. Using these models we investigate and study the train's delay propagation and the acts which influence this propagation under moving block system.The main contents are followed:1,According to the cellular automata and the rail transportation's characteristics ,the model of cellular automata for four-aspect is established. The relationship between time and speed, space has been analyzed, confirmed the model to be able to response the train's running characteristics in the rail traffic system really.2,We built CA models for moving space block system. Using this model, by taking into account of the length of the train, and defining the speed of the train starting, so the model is much like the actual situation, study the impact of delayed trains to the entire rail traffic systems. The simulating results show that the model can simulate characteristics of the train track in transport and tracking operation of the transmission delays.3,Make comparison of the train's running characteristics in both fixed block system and moving block system, for example, time between two starting trains, the velocity of running train. The simulating result validated that the moving block system can improve the operating efficiency of the rail traffic system.