Test & Evaluation Technology Of Antimissile Weapon Systems In Small Sample Case

The antimissile weapon system costs much and is becoming more and more complicated. To evaluate it by test also gets more and more difficult. The small sample test & evaluation technology plays an important role in the project of antimissile weapon system development. By using it can reduce the test cost efficiently, evaluate the tactical indexes, such as system precision, and cut the developing time.In this thesis, test & evaluation technology of antimissile weapon system including hardware in-the-loop simulation (HWIL) test and hovered test are introduced, the results of which can be served as the prior information. The general methods on prior credibility are introduced, and the credibility of prior information is analyzed. Bayesian precision estimation in small sample is implemented based on the foregoing statement. The deviation and variance of miss distance are analyzed by point estimation and confidence interval estimation. When considering the prior credibility in the instances of complicated hypothesis and simple hypothesis, the deviation and variance of miss distance are verified. The Bayesian risk and the probability of the two types of errors including the probabilities of Type I and Type II errors are also provided. Finally, the precision estimation and evaluation algorithms are programmed, and a small sample test & evaluation tool is obtained and some test examples are given. The simulation results show that test & evaluation methods in small samples proposed in the thesis are feasible.