Small Sample Test Simulation-based Identification / Shaping Technology Research

In the circumstance of small sample test, the evaluation and finalization (E&F) for weapon system has a large amount of simulation test information, and utilize both simulation data and aviation test data to evaluate performances of weapon system. Under the integrated E&F scheme, this paper has studied the application of Bayesian method and Sequential Bayesian method in the integrated process. Two problems have been particularly analyzed, which include simulation credibility and fusion of multi-source information, and also been used in the precision evaluation of missile system.First, this paper designed an integrated E&F scheme for weapon system under small sample circumstance. The scheme analyses some basic idea and key technologies in the design.lt also discusses the work flow of Bayesian method and Sequential Bayesian method, and pointes out some problems in integrated disposal.Second, some problems of Bayesian method, such as the acquirement of prior information from simulation data, simulation credibility and the fusion of multi-source information, have been studied separately. At first, three methods, which are multistage Bayesian method, bootstrap method and Bayesian bootstrap method, have been introduced and compared. Then, the issue of large sample simulation data submerging small sample experiment data has been discussed. We have brought forward a solution: mending Bayesian method, which is taking simulation credibility into account. As for several information-fusion methods, such methods as linear fusion, multiplicative fusion and Bayesian fusion has been adopted according to various characteristics of mutli-information.Third, the paper analyzed the application of Sequential Bayesian method in precision evaluation, and comparied the characteristics of three methods: Bayesian Cut-off Course, Sequential Probability Ratio Test (SPRT) and Sequential Posterior Odd Test (SPOT). In the software kit of precision evaluation, these methods have been implemented, the effects of which have also been compared and analyzed with the experimental data.Finally, upon the previous work and the above theories and methods we discussed, the paper redeveloped a software kit of missile precision evalution under the demand of engineering practices. Through the test with the specific missile data, the validity of these methods and the software has been validated.