Research On The Early-warning Model Of Construction Of City Subway Based On Extension

With the modernization of the Chinese urban transport, the UMT has also entered the rapid development period. As the important component, the planning and the security of Metro construction have attracted more and more attention. Because of the complexity of the multi-technology and the particularity of construction environment, the sunbway project is high-risk. since 1990,there are several significant losses accidents about metro in china. The prediction and control of metro Construction disaster have become the focus of attention.In order to prevent metro Construction incidents more effectively, this paper analyzes the early warning systems of metro construction disasters in past metro projects, build basis database of early warning based on extension theory and from detailed process, analyzes the indicators and forecasts the results, by the methods of contrast, the literature review, RBS and so on.A concise idea of this topics is as follows.First discuss the metro construction safety management, clarify the the current security management tasks. then analyzes the existing theory of metro safety management, including KPI,OHSAS and FTA, by which, this paper points out the existing deficiencies of metro construction safety management, and the necessity of building early warning systems.Secondly, this paper does literature review of Disaster scientific theory, System Science theory, Safety Evaluation Theory, early warning, and extension system, as the theoridital foundation of early warning model. At the same time, according to the features of the subway construction disasters, this paper compares and evaluates the existing early-warning methods including conventional methods, mathematical models and logic analysis, and artificial intelligence methods and the extension, then identify the necessity and feasibility of Extension methods in the metro construction.Thirdly, this thesis defines the early warning system of metro Construction to establish the conceptual framework of early warning model, then establishes the early warning database, including the intelligence of disasters, the index system and the Limits. based on extension analysis the indicators, and ultimately determine the status– the type of accidents and the level of incidents development.Finally, a project about the subway line A is studied as a case in order to prove that the early-warning model based on extension is effective.