The Research Of One Karst Tunnelwater-Inrush Amount Forecast And Effect Evaluation Of Wuhan~Guangzhou High-Way In Shaoguan

For the reason of breaking out abruptly, disserving largely, hard to control and forcast, the tunnel water-inrush is an intractable problem. In order to assure the security of tunnel in the construction and operation, the forecasting of tunnel water-inrush has been a problem which is important and urgent to be solved. The study of forecasting to tunnel especially to karst tunnel has very important practical significance.It is should to know the geologic condition and hydrogeological feature in the area of the tunnel first ,then do statistical classification to karst calamity around the tunnel location, and lay hydrological geology observing point to record the changing of every index in the process of tunnel excavation.The tunnel water-inrush is determined to geofactor, and Stratum lighology is sufficient condition. On the condition of tunnel crossing the area of pasted fault, fold and cranny, the water-inrush is probably to occur, but the quantity of water-inrush lies on geohydrologic condition. Eg, the heave rainfall in a region, developed earth's surface water system and better developing underground water karst system,all these can increase the probability of occurring water-inrush.The key of the precision of water-inrush forecasting is to choose different method in different geologic condition, and different excavation mode will influence the forecasting also. Quasi method, water-balance method, numerical method etc are familiar forecasting methods, but all these methods are not universal. Gray system, fuzzy and time series methods developed in recent years, which have fine universe, are fit for illegible communication and can analyse fix-quality and fix-nature. These methods are valuable to popularize.In narrow sense, the water-inrush forecasting is water forecasting, and broad forecasting includes the forecasting of water-inrush's influence also. The integrative estimates to the tunnel water-inrush should not only take into account the security during construction and operation, but also considering the impact to environmental, which is to be put forward according with the situation of out country and need to be studied deeply and solved urgently.