The Research On Short-term Area Airspace Traffic Flow Prediction Problem

Recently, the safety of air transportation has been the key part of the global aviation. With the development of air traffic industry and the increasing traffic flow, conflicts between flights are rising and the risk in operation of air traffic system facilities is increasing as well. There is an urgent need to strengthen the power of management to ensure the safety technically.This paper starts with a prediction and an operation. First of all, it analyzes traffic conditions in area airspace, studies the methodology in air traffic flow prediction, and proposes a solving method-using trajectory prediction to evaluate the flow in area airspace, with respect to the short-term air traffic prediction. Secondly, this paper presents an interacting multiple model (IMM) algorithm on the basis of the methodology and experiments, and then introduces a modified version, the residual-mean interacting multiple model (RMIMM) algorithm. Meanwhile, the RMIMM algorithm combined with intent prediction shows the prediction method based on aircraft intents and gives its future development. Thirdly, based on the trajectory prediction, it builds a short-term air traffic flow prediction model which can be divided into fixes, routes and sectors. And this model with the combination of the former model which uses the garden line prediction constructs the overall air traffic flow model, which modifies the error in the former system. At last, it designs the short-term area flow prediction system to provide air traffic flows for air traffic controllers, statistics for conflict detection, and suggestions for air traffic decision-makers.