The Research On Air Traffic Flow Statistics And Prediction Technology

The Air Traffic, which conflicts with the limited airspace resource, is growing continuously these years. The congestion of airspace not only threatens the safety of Aviation Transportation, but reduces the effectiveness of the system. Great amount of flight delay resulted from the congestion caused huge economic loss. Airspace capacity evaluation, which is the prerequisite and basis of the implementation of ATFM (Air Traffic Flow Management), lays the foundation for solving the problem of air traffic congestion.This paper analyzed the characteristics of air traffic flow and introduced the concept of Grey which started with the concept of long term, middle term and short term statistics and prediction of the air traffic flow.The gray system is introduced to the flow statistics and prediction. Then, this paper studied the core algorithm for prediction methods and models, based on the prediction methods. Combined with the air route/airline model, the 4D trajectory was detailly described. At the same time, the departure routes and arrival routes of different aircraft types, the longitude, altitude, speed, flight angle of the aircraft at any time were received. These data and the point to point experience time was stored in the database, which provided the convenience of statistics and prediction. As static input data for the statistics and prediction, the traffic statistics data was used for the long term and short term prediction of the air traffic flow after using the gray system prediction method. At last, statistics and prediction system was detailly introduced.