Study On Reliability Pre-warning Of Urban Road Network Based On Rough Set Theory

The city structure is composed of the urban traffic network which was essential for the sustainable development of city. The reliability of the network is of great importance as a result. Nowadays the number of veichles on the surge in cities, even with lagre amount of resourses and funds layed in infrastructure construction and transport organization, low reliable network and its ineffective function remain and cannot be improved. The reliability of urban road network, especially the connectivity relliabilty is analyzed. According to the general theory of pre-warning, the basic principles and processes for urban road network pre-warning are suggested, including situation definition, cause search, precaution analyse and alarm sending. Rough set theory is a methodology dealing with imprecise, uncertain and incomplete data, which has been apllied in areas such as machine learning and proposal making. It is the first time to be utilized in road network reliability pre-warning in the aspect of precaution analyse. The fault or breakdown of network is considered to be the situation to be warned, reliability elements the causes, connevtivity reliability the pre-warning index. The framework of the pre-warning system is built up, and the system management is also given as a first stage for future implementation. At last, an urban network is illustrated, with data in connectivity reliabity and rough set theory application. The thesis could be a preliminary study on network pre-warning as well as rough set theory in transport area, which can be based for better urban transport its management.