Forecasts Of Electricity Demand In Northern Region Of Chongqing

With the electric power market reform in China continued to deepen, the power industry's rapid development, the gradually establishment of the market economic system and the overall function of the market, the relationship between the social-economic development and the electric power market is much closer. The electricity suply and demand balance is one of the core issues of the research on regional power market. If the electric power supply can not meet the economic development and people's living requirements, the economic development will be severely restricted and the establishment of the open competitive regional electric power market will be hindered. Northern region of Chongqing, whose development of regional electric power market may directly affect the social-economic development and the improvement of people's living standards. Therefore, in accordance with the district situation, based on the full consideration of dynamic relationship between energy, environment, economy and business efficiency, this paper extends accurate analysis of demand trend and its structure in electric power market. And it plays a practical significant role in formulating a scientific and rational long-term development planning and even in regulating the regional macroeconomy effectively.In this paper, the electric power market development in northern region of Chongqing is introduced first, by describing the social-economic development and the power market both in Chongqing and all over the country. Secondly, by discussing the macroeconomic policies and the policy environment for power industry, this paper inspects the relevant policies'impacts on the electric power development in northern region of Chongqing. Thirdly, this paper, by using the relevant theory of regional social-economic development and regional electric power market, discusses the interactive relationship between social-economic development and electric power market, and enphasizes the influence of regional socaial-economic development on the demand of electric power market. Then, based on that, it establishes the forecast model and, combinated with the practical analysis, forecasts the trend of electric power demand in northern region of Chongqing from 1997 to 2010. Finally, the electrict power market's effects on the social-economic development are discussed and there proposes some relevant advices in order to promote the development of the electric power market in northern region of Chongqing.