Analysis Of Investment Risk Treatment And Reinforcement For Small Reservoir In Mountainous Area

With the rapid economic development in China,large amounts of funds has been put into the treatment and reinforcement for partial reservoirs.Because of large quantity of small reservoirs and inferior quality,their safety problems have not been solved thoroughly.Once the failure events occur,not only the hydraulic structures will be damaged,but also lots of lives will be lost.The economic construction in the downstream area will be severely influenced.According to the statistical data of small reservoirs in Ju county in 1999,there are 163 defect reservoirs among total 195 reservoirs.These defect reservoirs become the serious hidden danger for annual flood-prevention engineering.At present,economic evaluation of flood-control engineering is the prerequisite for engineering construction.However,traditional economic evaluation is static procedure.The market is changeable,Many factors are stochastic.Therefore,it plays an important role to set up economic balance equation and calculate the investment risk analysis of treatment and reinforcement for small reservoirs.Taking Xiaozhuangzi reservoir as an example,the main research contents are as follows,●Through comprehensive analysis of defect Xiaozhuangzi reservoir,a set of practical technology for treatment and reinforcement for small reservoirs has been proposed.●To gather and sort out hydrologic and meteorological data of Xiaozhuangzi reservoir in Ju county,historical records of structural material prices and flood loss data under different frequency flood before and after Treatment and Reinforcement.●Regarding the lifetime of treatment and reinforcement engineering as a time unit,the main benefit of flood-control project will be obtained.With the stochastic simulation technology,the distribution of flood-control benefit will be fitted. Meantime the distribution models of other expenses are also established for risk analysis.●The risk analysis of treatment and reinforcement engineering invest is calculated with an equivalent distribution method..●Sensitivity analyses of main variables in balance equation are carried out for risk analysis.Through the investment risk analysis,it can be reasonable to make out the reinformcement project and estimate the benefit index of the construction engineering. Much more clear procedures and effective methods for decision making can be obtained by optimization of proposed treatment and reinforcement projects.