The Study Of Dam Flood Risk Analysis

This paper,which is on the base of the domestic dam risk management,references to the concept and theory studies of related in both home and abroad,has a detailed analysis of the uncertainties in the dam flood regulation and operation;It uses neural networks nonlinear fitting powerful ability to build a simulated reservoir flood regulation mode with the BP neural network;Through the various factors of the flood and combinations them,it calculates the corresponding maximum water level of the dam,uses the maximum entropy method to fit the maximum water level distribution of the dam,reaches the probability characteristics of the highest maximum level of the dam;On this basis,it obtains the dam risk,provides a feasible idea and method for the dam risk analysis.This method is the largest decrease of subjective assumptions Compared with traditional methods.It verifies the effectiveness and feasibility of the method by example.