Risk Assessment Of Power Blackouts Based On Maxumum Entropy Principle

With the development of power grid, the interconnection of power grid is accelerated, and the regional power grid becomes more closely linked. The electric power in our country has entered a new stage of long distance, ultra high voltage and extra high voltage. But at the same time, the power grid blackouts are occurring frequently and the consequences and effects of blackouts are more and more serious,which makes the research on power grid blackouts are widely concerned. It is the key for avoiding blackouts that evaluate and forecast the risk of power system blackouts. This thesis explored and studied the risk forecasting of blackouts from the macroscopic point of view, combined with the Entropy Theory. The main work is as follows:1? This thesis applied the maximum entropy to analyze the development process of blackouts and deduces the maximum entropy forecasting model of lost load.Based on the proposed model, the quantitative evaluation to blackouts risk was made with the blackouts history data of northwest power grid and blackouts simulation data of GS power grid, which proves it's feasible to apply maximum entropy to blackouts risk forecasting.2?In order to comprehensively consider the historical factors of blackouts and the current actual operation of power grid, this thesis combined the two models calculated by blackouts historical data and simulation data of GS power grid by Predictive Validity Theory. The two models are complementary to each for improving the accuracy of the forecast results of lost load.3?Based on the above research, this thesis defined the lost load risk index with the blackouts forecast results of power grid after a line breaking, and proposed a method to identify the critical lines in power grid and effectively identify the critical lines, which provides reference for the prevention of power blackouts.