Study Of Urban Road Traffic Accidents Analysis And Forecast Based On The Traffic Flow Factors

With the motorization process of the city speeding up,the number of motor vehicles growing,urban road traffic accidents have a rapid increase.Not only provided casualties,property damage,seriously affected the socio-economic development. Urban road traffic safety has become one of the world's serious social problems,by the widespread concern around the world.At present,many experts and scholars are studying and analyzing the accident factors of urban road traffic,from the people, vehicles,roads and environmental aspects and so on.Its internal mechanism is made by corresponding study.The results show that the operation of the state of traffic flow is a key factor caused in traffic accidents.Control of urban traffic flow operational status is one of the fundamental approaches which are effective to reduce the the accident rate.This article firstly began to relevantly analysis from urban road traffic flow factors:the speed,flow and traffic composition associated with the traffic accident,which focused on the detail analysis by the application of risk act and gray correlation analysis technique GRAP in the composition of specific traffic on specific cities;Analysised the negative impact of urban traffic accidents,Including accidents on the impact of traffic flow,causing delays,congestion,economic losses and environmental pollution,etc. Taking into account the people's demands for the improvement of the quality of the environment,this article focused on environmental pollution problems caused by the accident,proposed comprehensive evaluation method of Gray Set Right Clustering which based on multi-factor of the quality of the environment of the city,evaluated the specific level of environmental pollution caused by the accident,And established the framework of evaluation system of real-time dynamic environment of the accident. Then established framework of AID which is the automatic detection of the structure of the urban traffic system and builded the urban traffic accident control system structure in conjunction with urban traffic detection,positioning technology which Can effectively improve the management of urban road traffic accidents.Finally Gray prediction model GM(1,1)and gray optimization model GOM respectively were modeled and predicted the specific status of urban traffic.Carried out comparative analysis with indicators of Gray prediction model GM(1,1) and Gray Optimal GOM model.Obtained the results that Gray Optimal Model GOM has certain advantages than Gray Prediction Model GM(1,1).when forecasted traffic accidents rates.This paper discussed various sections by combinating theoretical research with examples analysis,the combination of the qualitative and quantitative analysis,based on the study and analysis of urban traffic accidents at home and abroad.The proposals put forward by the conclusions are applicable to other cities in the analysis of road traffic accidents.