| Electrified railways play a very important part in the integrated transportation system in China. It has an impact on power system and power users nearby, sometimes severe negative sequence and harmonic interferences and other disadvantageous affects. With the increase of new electrified railway, the expansion of existing electrified railway, the development of the locomotive technology and the development of the power system, how much the power quality affects brought by electrified railway, if power system will be affected or not, these need to be study. In this paper, after studying the distribution of traction load, the statistical method is used to predict the power quality caused by electrified railways.In this paper, the transform relationship between ports of traction transformers is presented. Negative sequence and harmonic assessment indicators is introduced.Taking into account the stochastic volatility of traction load, using Monte Carlo method to simulate stochastic volatility of supply arm current, analyzes in detail the relationship between boundary conditions and power quality in traction power supply system. This is the influence of negative sequence current distribution in traction substation by unloading probability, connection mode and phase commutation or not, and the influence of harmonic current distribution in traction substation by the types of locomotive, connection mode and unloading probability. Universal law of negative sequence current and harmonic current distribution in traction substation is obtained. Appropriate data are selected to predict the power quality in new traction substation.Appropriate supply arm current data for East Central Railway were selected, and impedance matrix was calculated. Monte Carlo method is used to predict the power quality when the traction power supplies system access Hainan power system. Analyze its affects on Hainan power system. It is referenced for access East Central Railway to Hainan power system.
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