Accident Causation Chain Analysis Of Vessel Collision

Marine transportation is a high-risky industry. Once the accident happened,it often would cause serious economic damage, even casualties and losses to the environmental pollution. Prevention and reduction of marine traffic accident in marine traffic safety administration, is always paid sufficient attention by the related departments and the domestic and foreign experts and scholars as a key research program. The statistics show that the rate of vessel collision is always ranking in front of the all kinds marine traffic accident. There are kinds of causation factors leading to the collision. Research confirms that more than 90% of the collisions are related with human elements. Research on the marine accident causation analysis still rest on a traditional and statistical phases in despite of ages. Discovering the collision causation mechanism is beginning to be paid more attention by experts and scholars. Based on the above two points, this thesis studys the vessel collision causation mechanism from the Angle of the human elements and reappearances the whole process.Based on the previous research and combination of the collected vessel collision accident report, this thesis renews the classification of human elements, it includes human error, personal matters, manegement factors. Stablishing every accident causation chain and then fitting all the eighty causation chains to be a network. Using the bayesian network model and the bayesian network analysis software GeNIe to process data and the network and chooses another twenty accidents to check the model, the result demonstrates it is valid. In the end of the thesis gets the maximum possibility causation chain. Meanwhile it gives several suggestions according to the results of the research proposes.The conclusion of this research is helpful to the related administrative agency to prevent and reduce vessel collision and also helpful to further study in the futuer.