Causation Analysis Of Ship Collision Based On Bayesian Network

Ship collision is an important category of marine traffic accident, the statistics show that the rate of ship collision has been enjoying the largest proportion of all kinds marine traffic accident. That would be damaging enough once the ship collision accident happened, it often would cause casualty and huge economic loss. Therefore, the accident causation analysis of ship collision becomes particularly important.At present, the research on this field by domestic academic circles is relatively less, most scholars focus on the research of the human factors led to the ship collision, it’s unilateralism to some extent; Although there are few researchers combined factors of three aspects, including human factors, ship factors and environmental factors, to conduct a relatively comprehensive research, in general speaking, those analysis of ship collision causation is not enough detailed.On the basis of summarizing the experience and the insufficiency of previous research, combined with the statistics of a large amount of data and the collected ship collision accident report sample, the paper conducted a deeply analysis on the action mechanism of human-ship-environment factors that led to a ship collision accident. Based on Bayesian network, this paper established a all-factors ship collision causation analysis model. This model could directly reflect the correlations among the factors from three aspects and their influence on a collision. The research conclusion of this thesis is helpful to the administrative department to prevent and reduce ship collision.