Research For Flood Operations Methods Of Dahuofang Reservoir Based On Inference Model

This article summarizes the characteristics of water resource utilization, the necessity and reservoir flood operations research, the importance of theoretical method to solve the shortage of water resources and flood disaster for the purpose, the contradiction between reservoir flood and the utilization of non-engineering measures, based on comprehensive information research model of fuzzy inference reservoir flood forecast scheduling method, theory of dahuofang reservoir flood real-time prediction, and scheduling model of dahuofang reservoir flood and typical practical design flood simulation, real-time scheduling model based on the results of the reasoning method of traditional flood dispatching flood dispatching method to seize opportunity, improving reservoir impounding magnitude of the utilization of resources, to solve the contradiction between supply and demand of water. Based on the comprehensive information, reservoir flood forecast scheduling scheme selection of flood prevention dispatching decision-making, etc, summarizes the research of reservoir flood forecast scheduling problems to solve these problems, and puts forward the main research contents.(1) Due to the reservoir flood forecast scheduling, the comprehensive information on the impact of faced during the quality of dispatching decision-making in these information, both known information, and the forecast accuracy of information, forecast information in relation to the prediction of the information is available. Therefore, this chapter to short-term rainfall forecast dahuofang basin as an example, based on information from 2001 to 2005 in fushun observatory 5 6,7,8,9, four months 610 days 24h rainfall forecast future information and practical information by statistical analysis of frequency analysis, calculation method of dahuofang basin 24h rainfall forecast future, the results show that the precision of dahuofang 24h rainfall forecast information for watershed dahuofang reservoir prediction of real-time scheduling. Based on comprehensive information for the study of dahuofang reservoir flood operations method provides a powerful guarantee.(2) For reservoir flood operations, failed to make full use of process for the future of the cause analysis and heavy rains forecast and flood forecast, and real-time face time of history, real-time and forecast of raining information, hydrologic meteorological information, feeling and the fuzziness and randomness, through the fuzzy classification of information reasonable level, and according to the information access time, scheduling staff has years of experience and scheduling and its rules can be summarized, based on comprehensive information reasoning model, when faced with time, the information input by using fuzzy inference features on approximate reasoning method to solve the automatic matching of homologous reasoning model, the solution satisfactory scheduling schemes reservoir.(3) Aiming at the complexity of the reservoir flood dispatching and information processing and trival human-computer interaction process, this paper studied the constraint condition of comprehensive information based on fuzzy reasoning method generating scheduling solution set of ideas and process, in the face of time according to policymakers will generate feasible scheduling schemes. By using entropy and improved method of dual contrast weights-making objective attributes will combine with subjective preferences determines the index weight, can choose the comprehensive knowledge and experience, reflects policymakers multi-grade fuzzy preference theory and model, draw more satisfactory scheduling schemes.Finally, a summary is given and some problems to be further studied are discussed.