Power System Load Analysis And Forecast

The power system load forecasting is a very important work in the power grid dispatching operation. The accuracy of the power system load forecasting has the immediate influence to security, efficiency and power quality of the power system operation.Firstly, this thesis has carried on the discussion to the power system load forecasting development and the research present situation and points out the question which in present the power system load forecasting exists by referring to the massive literature that is stressing mathematical method to despising load analysis. We can put load series as random signal series and uses empirical mode decomposition (EMD) theory, load series is decomposed into intrinsic mode function (IMF) which has different frequency by researching the characteristics of power system load, than carries on distance correlation analysis each IMF and meteorological factors, finds out intrinsic mode function which is related with meteorological factors and uses BP neural network to forecast intrinsic mode function with meteorological factors, other intrinsic mode functions are forecasted directly without meteorological factors. Last, we can get load forecasting value by adding intrinsic mode function which are achieved from forecasting. The outcome of forecasting example indicates that this method has the better forecast effect compared traditional forecast method.