Research On Load Characteristic Of Suzhou Area And Load Forecasting

Load forecasting of power grid is starting from the influencing factors such as the known operation condition of power system, the economic and social activities etc., by analysis of historical data, explore the inner link between the load and the influencing factors, apply reliable methods and tools to predict future demand for electricity, make scientific and rational judgment of the power load development trend. Load forecasting is a basic work of network planning and operations, is the foundation of grid operation control and computational analysis, is the key to ensure grid security and stability, reasonable grid operation mode, good power supply and demand balance.In this paper, the traditional and intelligent forecasting methods of electricity demand forecasting are reviewed and detailedly analysis their different and their respective applicable. Combined with the actual situation in Suzhou area, focusing on the impact of uncertainties term on load forecasting, the power structure and load characteristics of Suzhou area are analysised. According to the specific characteristics of the power load of Suzhou area, integrating variety traditional forecasting methods and BP neural network prediction method, the electricity consumption of Suzhou area during the "Twelve five" is forcasted. And predictions of traditional forecasting methods and BP neural network prediction method were analyzed and compared. The results show that compared with traditional forecasting methods. BP method is more suitable for long-term electricity forecasting in Suzhou region. BP method is more accurate and can be a good reference for load forecasting in Suzhou region. Based on the results of these studies, using BP neural network method, the electric power and energy of Suzhou area during "Thirteen five" is predicted. Meanwhile, the prediction method proposed in this paper apply equally to the other same regional grid.