City Nature Gas Demand Forecast Research And Application

Natural gas as a special commodity is one kind of community public goods, which is also a national security strategic material for many industries for the basic role it had played. Nature gas has important position for Chongqing comprehensive economic and social development and people's living standard. Therefore, the scientific of natural gas demand forecasts has great significance for pipeline construction, capacity increase decision-making, filling stations and other important arrangements. And gas energy has features of clean, high-quality and a wide range of uses. Based on future demand of nature gas in Chongqing, this paper researches the support measures of gas industry development, which is also important for the environmental protection and sustainable development.First, this paper analyzes the status of natural gas consumption in Chongqing on the basis of qualitative and quantitative analysis of the characteristics of the region's natural gas consumption. Economic class, population types of factors limit the types of factors and the development of the four types of factors point of view, of the major factors affecting natural gas consumption, and the correlation analysis again screened for the following forecast based on factors that provide the basis. As the diversity of gas user and functional types, its consumption is affected by many factors. Simple sequence-based prediction method itself can not completely reflect the amount of information it had contained, so this paper combines the method of the time series prediction and factors based forecasting.Second, take Chongqing nature gas market for example, using time series, neural network, self-organizing data mining methods as a combination of forecast, it analysis the consumption of nature gas in Chongqing from the year 2009 to the year 2015 which fully extract the information content of each factor to provide the basis for the decision of infrastructure and natural gas market planning.Finally, for the gap between supply and demand has becoming increasingly obvious, this paper proposes supporting measures from natural gas demand side management, enterprise system improvement and sector coordination mechanisms to ease the contradiction, and to better promote the healthy development of the industry.