| According to the national meteorological center provides nearly50yearsbetween the lancang and jin sha river strip (1961-2010), the daily maximumtemperature, minimum temperature and daily temperature daily precipitation, throughthe extreme events Statistical and Regional dynamical Downscaling of Extremes forEuropean regions Diagnostic Extremes Indices Software(STARDEX)57extremeclimate index in the study area. First of all, the paper analyzes the various index lineartrend in the study area; Secondly, combined with Picea-Abies forest distributionpicture determine Picea-Abies forest on the various factors of distribution center andecological amplitude; Finally, using the Picea-Abies forest fitting function extremeindexes and predict potential distribution area of Picea-Abies forest in2050.The mainresults were as follows:(1) Climate change trends:Extreme temperature changes significantly within the study area,showed awarming trend，seasonal temperature changes also showed a significant warmingtrend,especially winter temperatures warming trend is most significant. Northern andsouthern high growth trends,South Central regions of low growth, Whether it is thechange of diurnal temperature range,growing period, effective accumulatedtemperature,frost days,freezing days or heat waves days, could waves days areconsistent with the average annual temperature changes and with global and nationaltemperatures changes.Extreme precipitation trends of throughout the year was not significant, may bedue to a variety of factors including terrain, ocean currents and so on. Overall,thenorthern and south-central regions was decreased,the northeast end and southernregions was increased. Seasonal changes in precipitation relative to the changes inannual is more significant;Spring and autumn precipitation increasedsignificantly,Summer was significantly reduced,Changes in winter precipitationlarge fluctuations.(2) the spatial distribution of Pica-Abides suitable climate factorsAverage annual temperature range in the area of Picea-Abies-5℃to15℃,Picea-Abies the optimum distribution of annual average temperature range is1℃-9℃; Area temperatures years average diurnal range mainly in the range of11.6℃to13.4℃, the optimum distribution of the temperature in the mean diurnal range between12-13℃; Distribution area, warm day threshold value in the range of20.2℃to22.7℃, in21℃to22.25℃between the optimum distribution ofPicea-Abies warm day threshold scope; Distribution in the cold night in the scope ofthreshold-5℃to10℃, the most concentrated distribution between7.6℃to7.68℃, is the most suitable cold night Picea-Abies distribution scope of threshold value;Picea-Abies distribution area of frost days in the range of80-80days, between120-160days is Picea-Abies the optimum distribution of frost days; Picea-Abiesdistribution area, growing period in the range of80-80days, in130-270days ofgrowing period between Picea-Abies is the most concentrated distribution, is the mostappropriate distribution of Picea-Abies growth period; Picea-Abies distribution area,precipitation intensity between2mm to2.6mm, precipitation intensity in2mm to2.6mm is the most appropriate distribution Picea-Abies.(3) potential changes of Pica-Abides distributionBy studying that: without considering other factors affecting the premise, in theory, to2050, the southern Pica-Abides forest region significantly reduced in the central andnorthern regions on the altitudinal gradient shift occurs and the level of distribution tohigh-latitude occurred significantly movement. |
