The Impact Of Extreme Weather On Tea Production In Baoshan City

Using the meteorological data of daily maximum temperature,daily minimum temperature,daily mean temperature and daily precipitation of Baoshan station,Changning station,Yongping station and Tengchong five meteorologic stations in Baoshan City were counted by the centesimal value method.The tea output and the tea price changes were was reflected by important factors of tea production,and the extreme climate index was reflected the extreme climate events,and consider the use of GDP in Baoshan City,engaged in tea production and labor population as a background factor.And then use the econometric method to refine the extreme weather events into extreme weather events,such as extreme high temperature events,extreme low temperature events and extreme precipitation events,and directly correlate with each index to construct three extreme climates to build three SVAR models.Based on these,explore the effects of extreme climate events on tea production in Baoshan.The main conclusions gained are as follows:(1)Without considering the contribution rate of the tea yield change,the contribution rate of all variables in the later will be stabilized,It shows that the contribution degree of each variable to tea yield change is basically stable in the following years.(2)In the extreme high temperature index,the warm day threshold and warm day ratio in Baoshan showed an upward trend,indicating that the region's extreme high temperature events are increasing.In the extreme high temperature index,In the extreme high temperature indexes,the contribution rate of the warm day threshold kept rising from the beginning,and remained stable at the sixth lag stage,and the contribution rate remained at about14%.The contribution rate of warm day ratio to tea yield changes kept rising from the beginning,and it stays stable at the fourth lag stage,and the contribution rate is about8.6%.Compared to the background factor(Baoshan city GDP,tea production laborpopulation),the contribution of the warm day threshold and the the warm day ratio to the tea yield change are very obvious.In the long run,warm day threshold and warm day ratio have a positive effect on tea yield,and have long-term positive effect.The contribution rate of the warm day threshold relatively small,which the contribution remained below 0.2%.The contribution rate of the warm day ratio is rising at the beginning,and basically stable at about 4.03% after fourth lag period.Compared to the background factor,the contribution rate of warm day threshold in extreme high temperature index is relatively limited,while the contribution of warm day ratio to tea yield change is more obvious.In the long term,the warm day threshold has long-term positive effect on the tea yield change,the warm day ratio has positive effects to the yield change in the early stage of negative impact,and with the passage of time,the influence gradually weakened.(3)In the extreme low temperature index,the cold day threshold showed a significant upward trend,while the frost days showed a significant downward trend,indicating that the region's extreme low temperature events are decreasingIn the extreme low temperature index,The contribution rate of cold day threshold to tea yield changes from the beginning,and tends to be stable in the third lag period,and the contribution rate is about 4.7%.The contribution rate of frost days remained stable after second periods,which the contribution rate remained about 4%.The contribution rate of cold day tatio is relatively small,which the contribution remained 0.3%.Compared to the background factors,the contribution of the number of cold day threshold and frost day in the extreme low temperature index is more obvious,while the contribution degree of cold days ration on tea yield variation is limited.In the long run,the number of frost days has a negative influence on tea yield,while the cold day threshold and the cold day have a positive influence.The contribution rate of cold day ratio is rising at the beginning,whice the contribution rate basically stable at about 4.03%.The contribution rate of frost days increased in the third periods,and the contribution rate remained about 2%;The contribution rate of cold day ratio was basically maintained at about 1.5% from the third stage.Compared to the background factor,the contribution degree of cold daythreshold and the frost day are relatively obvious,while the contribution of cold day proportion is relatively limited.In the long run,the changes of the extreme cold index to the tea price changes have a positive response,then there has been a negative response,,and with the passage of time,the shock response gradually weakened.(4)In the extreme precipitation index,the contribution rate is 12.66%,followed by the longest continuous wet days,the maximum contribution rate is 9.5%,and then the maximum precipitation is 5 days,The contribution rate of 7.25%,and finally the capital factor and the number of strong precipitation days,especially the strong precipitation days the overall contribution rate remained below 2.5%.Compared with the background factors,it is found that the longest continuous wet days and the maximum precipitation of 5 days are one of the most important factors affecting the change of tea production.The strong precipitation days are not the important factors influencing the change of tea yield.In the long run,the extreme precipitation indicators on the tea yield changes in the early negative impact,late positive impact.The contribution rate of the longest continuous wet days to the price change of wool tea is 20.98%,followed by labor factor,the contribution is up to 12.62%,followed by the maximum precipitation of 5 days,the highest contribution rate is9.69%,and the economic factor And the contribution rate of the strong precipitation days is relatively low,especially the strong precipitation days,the contribution rate remained below 0.5%.Compared with the background factor,the longest continuous wet precipitation days and the maximum 5 day rainfall is one of the important factors affecting tea prices,strong precipitation days is an important factor influencing tea price changes.In the long term effect of the longest continuous rainfall wet days,maximum 5 daily rainfall on tea price changes shows the fluctuation trend of weakening.