Research On The Climate Suitability Change Of Winter Wheat In Henan Province

The increase of the density of greenhouse gas will cause global climate change, This is a main conclusion in research of numerical simulation of weather in recent years. Climate change will bring a lot of new problems to different social economy fields. Agriculture is the foundation of the national economy and basic assurance of sustainable development. Lies in the north circles of subtropical zone and the boundary between Huanghuaihai plain and western mountainous region of our country, Henan Provinces has a large population, Its economy is backward. Consequently, the position and function of agriculture in the whole social economic development are particularly protrusive, So it has important theory meaning and practical value to study the impact of climate change on agricultural production of Henah Province and corresponding counter-measure.Based on the above consideration, using basic theories and method, such as agricultural meteorology, agricultural ecology and statistics, etc., Under the technical support of software Microsoft Access of data base, data processing software Microsoft Excel and statistical analysis software SPSS, this dissertation has carried on qualitative and quantitative research to the climate suitability change of winter wheat in Henan Province in resent 40 years. Thereunder the suitability degree and its fluctuation of every growth stage, it has also analyzed the precipitation, temperature and sunbeam key period's change of pre-1980 and after-1980.K Using fuzzy mathematics, the ten-day temperature suitability function, the ten-day precipitation suitability function, the ten-day sunbeam suitability function was set up by combining with the physiology ecological characteristic of winter wheat in Henan Province, their function form is respectively:In the above function, T, S, R refers to the ten-day temperature, sunbeam and precipitation observed value during the whole growth stage of winter wheat. Consider the objective difference of weather conditions' influence intensity on crop's growing within different growth stages, the suitability degree of every growth stage or the whole growth stage must be the sum of product between the ten-day suitability degree and its weight. At present, there are many methods that determines the weight, such as Expert Consulting, Correlation Analysis, Factor Analytic approach, etc. This dissertation use correlation analysis settling weight for each ten-day to every growth stage, Use the factor analytic approach designing weight for 20ten-days. Because the process of winter wheat growing is affected by temperature, sunbeam and precipitation jointly, the cooperative intention of the three factors must be stimulated in order to mirror its climate suitability change, therefore this dissertation adopt geometric average law to calculate the comprehensive climate suitability degree. Because the law of geometric average can reflect the extreme situation, at the same time can also delineate the compensation function each other among the factors . By correlating with meteorological output of winter wheat and the calculating results of climate suitability degree to 10 representative stations it found that the dependence between them is extremely remarkable, this proved that it is rational and feasible to use this kind of method simulating climate suitability change of crops.2. After calculating suitability degree of every ten-day by using the climate suitability model, we found the climate suitability change of winter wheat in Henan Province appears like the figure of English letter "V", namely the restriction of winter weather on wheat's surviving is very strong. But because temperature rose generally in the whole world winter since the eighties of the 20th century, The climate suitability degree of winter wheat improved to some extent during jointing stage. In order to illustrate spatial differences of the climate suitability change in the whole growth stage of winter wheat in Henan Province, following the regional difference quality principle in natur...