The Research Of Agricultural Water Demand Estimation Of Irrigating In Dry Inland River Valley

This thesis is a part of national scientific and technological brainstorm project that studies with the safe and sustainable utilization mode of water resource of Manas river valley. Manas river valley belong to typical arid inland basin. According to specific geographical position and climatic conditions, its has formed special desert oasis agriculture. The oasis is surrounded by the desert and lacked of water that determined the agricultural ecology extremely fragile. So water resource has already become the bottleneck question of economic development of the arid inland basin. But agricultural water account for more than 90% in that region, so agricultural water demand forecasting to the future has certain realistic meanings.This text fits the whole production function of the moisture and moisture production function of the crop of stage of the typical crop (cotton) of Manas river valley. There is a lot of crop moisture production function model of stage and Jensen model is suitable for the aridity, semi-arid region. So I adopt Jensen model to get the moisture sensitive index of stages of the cotton. The result shows that cotton sensitive index is maximum in the post-period flowering stage and minimum in seedling stage. Accord with the production practices principle of irritate " key water" and " restraining the growth of seedlings ". That has offered the basis of scientific irrigating. On this basis, I adopt the two-dimentional dynamic planning principle to optimize the irrigating system of the cotton. Under the insufficient condition of the amount of water can assign the water resource rationally and improve the utilization efficiency of the water.This paper sets up models of agricultural water demand forecasting that consider the population, per capita living standard, pattern of farming, and water-saving technology on the bases of Manas river valley. This paper also predicts the water demand of the planting, industry of planting, forest and fruit tress, meadow and fishing animal husbandry in level annual 2010, in 2020 and 2030. The water-saving measures of irrigated area of the basin have been discussed.Through the analysis and research of irrigated area of typical arid inland river valley and combine agricultural water current situation and development trend, the forecasting models of agricultural water demand have set up. That will be realize the scientific water and reduce the blindness in irrigated area to improve the inland water comprehensive resource utilization level and make the limited water resource give play to its greatest ecology , economy , social benefit in social economic development and benign cycle of the ecological environment.