Forecasting The Demand Of Chinese Shortage Of Agriculture Talent In The New Era

To comprehensively promote rural revitalization and accelerate agricultural modernization,it is urgent to build a team of agricultural science and technology talents with optimized structure.Scientific and technological talents are the important pillar of national economic development,and their shortage has become a focus of today’s society.Document No.1 of the Central Committee(2023)proposes that we must persist in solving the problems of "agriculture,rural areas and farmers" as the top priority of the whole Party’s work,fully promote rural revitalization with the efforts of the whole Party and the whole society,strengthen the construction of rural talents,and support the training of local talents in urgent need.They can not only actively collect information related to agricultural development and update the existing knowledge system,but also pass on the technology they have mastered to other agricultural workers,thus playing an important role in the inheritance of scientific and technological application and innovation.However,the cultivation of agricultural talents in short supply in the new era is facing the new domestic and foreign strategic background,cultural background and policy background.Scientific and technological innovation and the "bottleneck" technical problem still restrict the agricultural development and progress.Therefore,it has become a very important task in the construction of agricultural talents in China to predict the development status of agricultural talents in short supply in scale,hierarchy and type in the future,and accelerate the training of agricultural talents in short supply to meet the practical needs of agricultural development in the new era.First of all,by combing the existing literature,this paper defines the concepts related to the new era,talents in short supply of agricultural science and talent demand forecast,and discusses the guiding role of human capital theory,supply and demand theory and grey system theory to this paper.Secondly,it analyzes the current situation of talent demand in shortage of agricultural science.First,based on theoretical analysis,this paper discusses the development orientation of agricultural talents in short supply in the new era,clarifies the strategic,cultural and policy background,agricultural science and technology innovation and solving the "bottleneck" technical problem,as well as the new demand for agricultural talents in short supply proposed by comprehensive management and reform of higher agricultural education.The second is to construct the analysis framework of talents in short supply in agricultural sciences from the aspects of the total amount of talents,hierarchical structure,type and professional structure,and according to the results of the questionnaire survey,analyze the current situation of the demand for talents in short supply in agricultural sciences by employers and agricultural government departments.Thirdly,the paper predicts the demand of agricultural talents in short supply from 2025 to 2035 in terms of total quantity,hierarchy and type.Firstly,by constructing the index system of influencing factors of talents in shortage of agricultural sciences,the main influencing factors of talents in shortage of agricultural sciences were discussed.The second is the combination of multiple linear regression model and grey GM(1,1)model to predict the total quantity,hierarchy and type of agricultural talents in short supply demand,and according to the forecast results,analyze and summarize its development trend.Finally,based on the perspective of cultivation and demand of talents in short supply in agricultural sciences,aiming at the multi-subjects of government,enterprises,universities and society,from the perspectives of expanding talent team,optimizing talent structure,implementing differentiated training methods,perfecting talent demand early warning mechanism,optimizing agricultural industry environment,developing new agricultural enterprises,strengthening incentive and guarantee mechanism,etc.,Put forward the new era to meet the needs of agricultural talent shortage development of specific policies.