In this research, questionnaires, ground investigation in daylight and sampling quadrat methods were used to study the habitat status quo and population size of the Chinese alligator (Alligator sinensis); meanwhile, the author also investigated the fertilizing rate and the incubating rate of the Chinese alligator from parental generation, F1 generation & F2 generation. The model established by Time Series Analysis method was used to anticipate the breeding population size of the Chinese alligator in 5-year & 10-year. The results showed that between the two sample sites (with alligator and without), no significant difference was found in the four heavy metal elements contents of the soil and three heavy metal elements (Cu, Zn, Cd) contents of the water samples, while the difference of Pb elements of the water samples is significant; The association of the selected 8 factors to the survival of the wild Chinese alligator followed the following descending order: shelter condition of bank, pH value of water area, snail abundance, density of bamboo, stability of water, texture of soil, situation of islands and vegetation type, with the shelter condition of bank as the major factor (OR=13.628) and situation of islands and vegetation type as the least associated. It is estimated that the full size of the wild Chinese alligator population is about 122, distributed in 16 plot-like habitats. One way ANOVA indicated that the variance between fertilizing rate and the incubating rate of the 3 reproducing generations is significant (P<0.05), and the fertilizing rate of the filial generation drops dramatically. Additionally, the Chinese alligator breeding population was predicted in 5-year & 10-year according to the average preserving rate of the alligators in the "center"from 1982 to 2003, which offers the theoretical basis for the establishment and management of the breeding population. |