Study On The Sensitivity And Vulnerability Of Main Crops To Climate Change In China

The paper targeted the three main crops including wheat, maize and rice, simulated the crop yield of current (2000) and future (2070s) by utilizing CERES crop model under B2 scenario that produced by PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) of the UK Hadley Centre. According the yield change ratio analyze the sensitivity of three main crops in the future, and then studied the vulnerability comprehensively considering the nation's social and economic development, water shortage and potential of crop yield increase, finally using GIS technology indicated the maps of sensitivity and vulnerability of crop. The results are as follows:1. The main crops are more sensitive to future climate change in China. Future climate change will have adverse impacts on crops of most parts lead to yield decreased, and crops yield will decrease about 30% in some severe region. Adopting effective adaptive measurements, while some parts will still be vulnerable due to limitation of adaptive capacity will lessen the adverse impacts.2. Under the B2 scenario of no CO₂ fertilization and crop system change, the rain-fed wheat yield will decrease 23.7% and irrigated wheat is 19.4% in 2070s.There will be three negative sensitive areas of rain-fed wheat: northeast China, the region of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, The Loess Plateau region. For irrigated wheat, most areas of China tend to be sensitive. The distribution tendency of the sensitive areas is similar to that of rain-fed wheat. Under the consideration of adaptation, rain-fed wheat in most regions of China will not be vulnerable and even has a yield increase. For irrigated wheat, the vulnerable area is bigger, about 2/3 of its total area in China. The highly vulnerable regions are distributed in Northeast China and Northwest China.3. Under the B2 scenario of no CO2 fertilization and crop system change, the yield of rain-fed and irrigated maize will separately decrease 2% and 14.3% in 2070s.The negative sensitive areas of rain-fed maize will mainly distribute in: (1) the middle and southern parts of Northeast China; (2) Southwest China and Guangxi; and (3) middle parts of China (Hubei and the southern parts of Shaanxi,). The distribution of the negative sensitive areas of irrigated maize is similar to that of rain-fed maize, but extends to Northwest China. The positive sensitive areas (yield-increased areas) of maize to climate change will distribute in the northern parts of Northeast China, the agricultural & pastoral ecotone, and parts of Hebei & Shangdong. Considering adaptation, rain-fed maize in most parts of China will not be vulnerable at all. There will be some scatteredly vulnerable areas distributed in northwest Jilin, southern Liaoning, the middle & southern parts of Shaanxi, Hubei, the middle & northern parts of Guizhou and northern Guangxi. For irrigated maize, the vulnerable areas are more extensive; the vulnerable areas are mainly distributed in Northeast China, middle parts of China, Southwest China and Northwest China.