Impacts Of Climate Change To Farm Household Livelihood Vulnerability And Adaptation In Northwest,Vietnam

Climatic change influences almost all regions of the world,which have significant perturbations significant perturbations on natural systems with inevitable impacts on the economic systems of highland.There has been a focus on various impacted aspects which are considered to be essential to livelihood;such as water resources,agriculture,fisheries,forestry,human health,infrastructures,and ecological system.Vietnam is a developing country that is mostly affected by climate change.Most of the ethnic minorities of Vietnam lies in the northern mountainous region with poor livelihoods and least developed economic conditions as well as weekly transportation.In addition,the manifestations of climate change in particular,extreme weather events become a serious threat to farmer's livelihoods.This study is intended to examine the vulnerability of the farm household livelihood in Vietnam Northwest areas due to climate change and analyze the economic impact of climate variability on farm households' net revenue.Moreover,this study identifies farmers' perceptions to climate change and adaptation measures to be made in their farming practices in response to these changes.In order to access factors that affect farmers' perceptions and their adaptation choices,primary and secondary data were collected from various sources.Primary data was collected through a household survey,farmer workshops,FGD.Secondary was collected from VHLSS(GSO 2012),hydro-meteorological forecasting data,etc.This study develops and tests a livelihood vulnerability index(LVI),LVI-IPCC and Livelihood Effect Index(LEI)for three agricultural and natural resources-dependent commune in Northwestern mountain of Vietnam.Ricardian approach was utilized to analyze the impact of climate change on agriculture in the Northwestern area of Vietnam by taking account into farmer adaptations.Logit model was utilized to explore farmers' awareness climate change and binary logistic model was used to analyze their adaptation.The main results were as follows:(1)One of the communities,"Pa Vay Su",was more vulnerable than the others particularly,in relation to health,knowledge and skills,food,land,water security,climate variability and natural disasters,socio-demographic,social networks,financial,infrastructure,housing.On the other hand,Hien Luong commune was more vulnerable in relation to other LVI indicators with the exception of natural resources.Moc Chau commune was more vulnerable in relation to knowledge and skills,livelihood strategy,water security,social demographic in comparison with Hien Luong commune.(2)Net revenues of the household are affected by the change in temperature and precipitation.Relationship of household revenue and weather variables is nonlinear significant and inverted U-shaped relationships between the two seasons.Net revenue decreased as temperature increase in dry season and precipitation increase in rainy season.Net revenue is expected to decline about 17.7%and 21.28%due to climate change in 2050 and 2100 respectively in without adaptation model.Net revenue would be less to 0.37%and 0.20%in 2050 and 2100 respectively in with adaptation model.(3)Farmers' awareness of climate change was significantly related to household and farmer characteristics such as gender,education,farming experience,area,soil fertility,land tenure;institutional factors as extensive weather forecast,farmers' group and agroecological settings.Furthermore,this study demonstrates that farm experience,education,land area,tenancy status,soil fertility,access to credit,climate information and agricultural extension services,farmers' group,off farm income,distance to market,and climate change experience influence farmers' choices of adaptation measures.Our findings suggest that investment strategies must promote adaptation to climate change by supporting technological and institutional methods such as shooling,markets,credit and information.(4)Overall,the paper shows that all the three different vulnerability assessment indexes(LVI,LVI-IPCC and LEI)might be broadly applied to comparable setting in other areas of the country.All the three indicators are adequately reflecting the associated difference in terms of assessing the vulnerability index due to climate change and they could usefully establish the basis for a nationally applicable index to identify and prioritize adaptation and mitigation needs.The impact study of climate change on household net revenue and identified the farmers' perception will help to clarify and may contribute in the formulation of sustainable livelihoods against climate change.(5)Vietnam government should consider designing and implementing adaptation policies to counteract the harmful impacts of climate change in long term.Adaptation options should focus on structural change of crops,development of new plant varieties suitable to the region's climatic conditions,planting drought tolerant,implementing agricultural diversification,educating farmers,Opening more extension stations,and strengthen the financial services.This paper also reconfirms that tropical developing countries are sensitive to the predicted climate changes over the next century.