Temporal And Spatial Analysis And Simulation On LUCC In Arid Area

With the current problem of population, resources and environment becoming increasingly intense day by day, the land use /land cover change (LUCC) is one of the core topics on the Present World Change Study. And with the worsening of the global environment, the exhausting of energy and the population explosion, the controversy between the development of oasis economy and the environment has become more and more sharp, which has formed a serious threat to the sustainable development the oasis economy. As a result, the reasonable, coordinate and continuous development is the experimental topic with great theoretical and practical significance in the world, especially in the in arid and half arid areas.By means of the 3S technology, employing the TM data for the basic data pool, due to the relatively accurate basic classification, together with the employment of the artificial neural network and other kinds of technologies, this article thoroughly discussed LUCC process in arid area and the essential principles of the typical representative region of the arid area—Xinjiang Yutian oasis. Besides, we have made the comprehensive simulated quantity and space research on the future tendency of LUCC.1) By studying each kind of LUCC model method and comparing the corresponding cases, we summarized the characteristics and the current application of each model method.2) Based on the detailed analysis and pretreatment to the remote sensing imagery, we obtained relatively high precision classification result. First we take the farmland, the high, middle and low density grassland, the desert, the water body, and the salty land as a classification system, thoroughly analyzed the LUCC process of the studied region in the previous years; next from the angle of oasis, oasis—desert mixed zone and the desert, we further discussed the features of LUCC. As the result, we find: the most distinct features of LUCC in arid area mainly appeared in the oasis—desert interlocked belt, and the whole change is not obvious, but the partial variation is sharp.3) Through the dynamic change examination, this paper established many kinds of Markov chain model under the different steps. That is, the much time-gap Markov chain model, also the precision of each model has been evaluated. After this work, we finally predicted the future LUCC by Markov chain model and validated it. By detailed analysis we finally draws the conclusion from these models:The arid area LUCC process is conforms to Markov, and has the certain ergodicity; At the same time,we also discovered that although the first passage time is little used in LUCC analysis,this parameter can give us a good representation when analysis a LUCC process.It has many excellences in use,such as simplicity and distinguish the characteristics well, also can equate the arid area LUCC model in the first passage time;Moreover, in establishes in Markov model process, the length of stride choice is extremely important, because under the different length of stride model, possibly can appear the completely different result.