Prediction Of Potential Geographical Distribution And Invasion Risk Assessment To Natural Ecosystem Of Rhus Typhina

Exotic tree Rhus typhina has many excellent features, is a very good ornamental tree, and soil and water conservation tree. However, its strong the propagation characteristics and adaptability, generate considerable controversy about invasion issue. In this paper, Rhus typhina was studied, using ArcGIS model draw the Cultivation area of Rhus typhina in China, elevation and vegetation maps, using DOMAIN, BIOCLIM, ECOCROP and GARP models predicted potential geographical distribution of Rhus typhina in China, and verification accuracy of the softwares. Invasion risk assessment to natural ecosystem of Rhus typhina will help to understand invasion risk of Rhus typhina, reduce introduction to the potential ecological risk. At the same time, in the future provided academic basis for introdution exotic trees.Introduction and cultivation areas of Rhus typhina in China are mainly located at 35°～45°N, 100°～125°E range, including Yellow River Basin and North-East of China. Elevation range of main cultivation areas of Rhus typhina is 100–1500m, and vegetation types of Rhus typhina are temperate grassland vegetation, warm temperate deciduous broadleaf forest. Potential Geographical Distribution of Rhus typhina include most parts of Beijing, Tianjin, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Hebei, Shandong, Ningxia, central parts of Inner Mongolia, a small parts of Xinjiang, Jiangsu, Anhui, Hubei, Sichuan.Using BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, GARP and ECOCROP models predicted potential geographical distribution of Rhus typhina in China. Comparison accuracy by verifying the models: the best one is DOMAIN, others in the following order: GARP, ECOCROP, BIOCLIM. Although potential geographical distribution predicted by the four models are different, the best suitable distribution areas of Rhus typhina are mainly located in 34°～36°N to 38°～42°N, 106°～107°E to 122°～123°E , including Beijing, Tianjin, southwest parts of Gansu, north parts of Shaanxi, central south of Inner Mongolia, most parts of Shandong, southwest of Liaoning, local parts of Shanxi and Hebei.Using different climate data (1950～2000a and 2000-2050a), simulation with global climate warming, potential geographical distribution of Rhus typhina maybe change. The results show: with the rapid increase in CO2 emissions and global warming, potential geographical distribution of Rhus typhina in China shift northward, main potential geographical distribution areas of Rhus typhina significantly reduced and many areas are discontinuous.Finally launched invasion risk assessment to natural ecosystem of Rhus typhina, evaluation results are as follows: invasiveness and actual spreading amplitude areⅢ, ecological impcts and control difficulty areⅡ. According to according to a synthetic judgement table, invasion risk classes of Rhus typhina is medium. Management strategy could be developed according to the invasion risk classes and its difficulty in controlling the invasion.