Studies On Wheat Meteorological Disaster Risk Assessment And Its Application In Agricultural Insurance

This study use risk analysis method, with GIS technology, analyzed and evaluation main meteorological disasters risk of Anhui wheat. And applied results to agriculture Insurance Decision.This study research contents and obtain results as follows:First, Identification main meteorological disasters of Anhui wheat.The results showed that, drought, waterlogging, winter freeze, late frostbite and hot dry wind are Anhui wheat main meteorological disasters. For indicators quantified needs of disasters analysis, this study reference wheat disasters meteorological indicators, designed disasters index. In Order to identifying disasters comprehensive effect, this study use gray theory to design Combined disaster index, Calculate Gray Correlation between disasters index and yield.Results showed that, wheat drought disaster was the greatest impact, followed dry hot wind, again is waterlogging, Late frost, winter freeze injury was little effect. Use Grey Correlation as weight, Various disasters sum index with weights, Then comprehensive disaster index of meteorological disasters was obtained,. use it to correlation analysis with Loss rate, The results showed they had significant correlation.Secondly, conducted risk analysis of Anhui wheat meteorological disasters. The study To overcome sample less brought information incomplete defects, using fuzzy mathematics information diffusion method calculated single disaster and comprehensive disaster index probability in different levels, and drawn Exceed probability curve (EP curve), Then analyzed distribution of disasters, And result showed:Anhui wheat meteorological disasters obvious difference in South and north, With latitude rendering gradient distribution characteristics. Average disaster index and large disasters probability of drought, dry hot wind were increasing from south to North; winter Frost and late frostbite also appears increasing trend from south to North turn, but near the Yangtze region were smaller; waterlogging disaster from south to North turn rendering gradient decreasing; but from Comprehensive disasters distribution, from south to north gradually increasing.Again, established disaster risk assessment model and assessment risk of wheat meteorological disasters in Anhui. For comparison, this paper use two methods to assessment Anhui wheat meteorological disasters risk. First, established historical loss based probability model, and drawn different levels loss rate probability distribution map. Secondly, The study chose Comprehensive disaster index greater than 0.25 probability as meteorological Hazard indicators, at same time introduced exposure indicators, disaster environmental stability indicators and disaster mitigation indicators, adopt AHP method determine various indicators weight coefficient, established Anhui wheat meteorological disaster risk assessment model, calculated various region meteorological disaster risk index. Use risk index and probability that loss rate> 10% to correlation analysis, showed correlation extremely significant (R=0.42, P<0.01). Use meteorological disaster risks index draw distribution map with GIS, showed disaster risk distribution along the latitudinal gradient,in Anhui, significant difference between north and south, differents areas have differents types of disasters and disaster conditions. But both correlation coefficient low, because single loss indicators embody potential disaster risk incomplete。it's insinuate use meteorological disaster risk models Assessment potential Risk is superiority.Finally, Faced current agricultural Insurance Main problems, this study tried apply Anhui wheat meteorological disasters risk analysis results to agricultural Insurance Decision management.Highlighted three aspects application attempt:(1) For meteorological disaster risk index and probability of wheat loss rate> 10% as index, accordance agricultural insurance partition regulation, Use K-Means clustering method, divided Anhui into 4 different insurance areas,and expounded earch risk characteristics. (2) Proposed differentiation method of agricultural insurance operation, and use regional risk coefficient combine benchmark rates to conduct regional rates settings,Then calculations earch area rates.