Dynamic Prediction Of Rice Production In Dongting Lake Area Based On Spatial Information Technology

For a long time, the food problem has been plagued human existence and development of important issues. In current global climate change, global food prices and the financial crisis situation, the importance of the food problem is more prominent. The Dongting Lake in China's Yangtze River is China's important food crops-rice in main producing areas. On one hand, inadequate investment in land use and management is not quite reasonable, making the region the gradual decline in soil productivity, the trend was to a large extent on China's potential threat to food security. On the other hand, prediction of productivity in food crops, the current results mainly in the North China Plain and other dry farming areas, while the southern region of rice as the main prediction of crop productivity is less involved, and the terrain and environmental conditions are complex and difficult to predict. Thus, to date, rice production in Dongting Lake area of simulation and prediction is lacking and rarely reported.In recent years, the proposed digital agriculture, rice production mechanization and farm restructuring of the rice production forecast for the proposed urgent needs. At the same time,3S (GIS, GPS, RS) technology was a solution to this problem provides a convenient and possible. The selection of the important commodity grain base of rice in'Dongting Lake area for research will explore the current characteristics of rice productivity in the region, compared the prediction of different models to find the Dongting Lake area for rice production forecasting model, the use of spatial information technology for rice production information technology management and decision support tools for the rational development of regional food policy to provide a theoretical basis. Research work and conclusions of this paper is as follows:(1) According to the growth characteristics of rice in Dongting Lake area, through experiment and modeling approach reveals the environmental factors of rice growth, rice productivity analysis and comparison of empirical and theoretical prediction model. Follow from the small area, station (point) database construction and model of the mechanism of early to late Dongting Lake large number of regional agriculture and model spatial database applications, the actual construction of research and practice ideas, from the point and surface, from early exploration to the late practice, found that problems continue to solve the problem, and gradually gain experience, as a model coupled with GIS and dynamic forecasting system of rice productivity to lay a solid foundation built.(2) The spatial database of digital agriculture based on Ice for Dongting Lake was constructed, and the database optimization mechanism was discussed. Carried out large-scale optimization theory based, regional, Dongting Lake digital spatial database of agricultural building, constructed out of the Dongting Lake area of digital agriculture spatial database, and explore a database optimization, data quality, improved access to a large extent, database management made a very large increase, the database operating environment and highlights the performance advantages can be extended to some extent the database data structure to solve a single, heterogeneous data exchanges, complex format, data storage and management of environmental information database construction key technical issues, access to high quality database platform.(3) The GIS prediction model of rice productivity and the coupling mechanism, the establishment of a GIS-based forecasting system for rice productivity dynamics. Coupling model by OGIS rice productivity to achieve the depth of the coupling model and GIS goals, on rice productivity model coupled with GIS has played the depth reference and guidance. Rice productivity with features of dynamic prediction system itself, a prediction system to carry out the relevant theory and technology of building research and development process in accordance with system requirements and to determine the overall system architecture, object-oriented systems analysis and design (OOA & OOD) methods application Rational Unified Process (RUP) and Unified Modeling Language (UML Unified Modeling Language), based on ArcEngine components of the system design and development, and to achieve the functional requirements of each.(4) Compared with the advantages and disadvantages of different prediction models, optimized for rice production in Dongting Lake region, the mathematical model of prediction, and information technology, space-based dynamic forecasting system for rice productivity applied research. Dongting Lake area of rice cultivation with the situation, step by step approach is more consistent than the actual situation of FAO model, suitable for application in the region. Lakes rice production potential was increased from southeast to northwest trend, high, mainly in areas Linli Changde, Hanshou, Anxiang and Li County area, while low areas are mostly located in Yueyang, Yiyang and Changsha, such as several regions. Lake levels quite different with different yield, high-yielding area only 14.60%of the total area, in the producing areas is 40.40%, while the low-producing area of nearly 45.00%, showing significant, the larger the proportion of low-producing situation. Fertilization by changing the system of effective measures, the region there is a large increase rice productivity space.