The Minimum Abandoned Water Modle Of Irrigation Reservoir Beased On Real-time Forecasting

Water resource is the irreplaceable important natural resource and material base which supports the survival of human beings and the development of the economy and society. Today such importance of water resource is more and more clearly, however, the contradiction of people's requirement and water supply happens. With development of social economy and acceleration of the course of urbanization, people have higher demand for water quantity and water quality, that's one side of the event; on the other side, short-supply of freshwater resource aggravates unceasingly. Then the results behind the embarrassment is deficient water resource not only restricts development of social economy, but also causes deterioration of the water environment. Irrigation reservoir, as one of the important water conservancy works, plays a key role in optimized allocation of water resource in an area. Therefore, the study on optimized irrigation the reservoir risk controller and encouraging an interest rate has important practical significance.The study in the paper on minimum abandoned water from irrigation reservoir based on former study achievements was carried out in theory discussion and practical application. The risk analysis method suggested that the reservoir flood was restricted by water level and the model of minimum abandoned water from irrigation reservoir was built. After these, an example of optimized water resource allocation between inflow and water use was worked out, take Bei xingjia irrigation reservoir of Shandong Province for example, the water yield draws to the reservoir coming using water yield to carry out the optimization deploy, to ascertain flood limit water level , the amounts increasing reservoir but water supply rationally. Concrete content as follows:(1) The research home and abroad on reservoir operation were reviewed and the deficient and difficult problems in former studies were pointed out depended on consulting lots of literatures.(2) Conception about the risk of maximum limited flood water level and its analytical method was illuminated, and the risk management in higher limited flood water level of irrigation reservoir was promoted under the analysis of characteristics of limited flood water level. Under the conception of risk and risk analysis, the factors consisted of risk was considered, and the risk management procedure of higher limited flood water level was made including risk identification, estimation, evaluation and decision-making. (3) The nonlinear program model was built, which set minimum abandoned water as the objective function and flood control, water storage, water supply as constraint conditions.(4) The runoff real-time forecast technology was researched with one order self correlation model. And the method of evaluating and checking errors in forecast was analyzed.(5) The minimum abandoned water from irrigation reservoir was optimized according to applying the simulated annealing and particle swarm combined algorithm to optimized allocation of water in irrigation reservoir. Under the situation of satisfying irrigation water, the efficiency of water use might be higher to achieve the goal of beneficial purpose.(6) In the achievement of such study on Beixingjia irrigation reservoir of Shan Dong Province, the limited flood water level rose 1.92m and the effective water storage increased 2.08×10~6m~3 during the common years. The results show that using such model and its solution method could be very helpful to make a decision in local area water resource regulation and allocation.