The Research Of Meteorological Monitoring And Prediction For Locusta Migratoria In Hebei Province

With the intensified global warming, and great endanger of Locusta migratoria since 1990S in Hebei Province, the meteorological indexes of Locusta migratoria outbreaks and its occurrence prediction models were investigated based on the locust biological characters and its historical data with meteorological information during 1980～2003. The relationships between the Locusta migratoria outbreaks and E1 Nino, La Nina events, and the sun's activities were analyzed also. And remote sensing technology was used to monitoring the dynamics of Locusta migratoria in Baiyangdian region. In addition, the monitoring and prediction service system of Locusta migratoria was built. The main results are as follows:(1) By using composite analysis and Spearman order correlation methods firstly, the key meteorological factors of affecting the outbreaks of Locusta migratoria in summer were determined for two ecological regions in Hebei Province. For coastal areas (Huanghua), they are the air temperatures of the 3rd dekday in June, 1st dekday in July, 1st and 2nd dekday in August and rainfall in 1st dekday in June of previous year, the rainfall of 3rd dekday in March and air temperature of 3rd dekday in April of present year. And for billabong areas (Anxin), they are the air temperatures of 1st dekday in July and 3rd dekday in August, rainfall of 2nd dekday in May of previous year, and air temperature of 2nd and 3rd dekday in Feb., 3rd dekday in April and 1st dekday in May of present year.(2) By using Bayesian rule and the disaster key time prediction methods firstly, the meteorological indexes and factors for forecasting the outbreaks of Locusta migratoria in summer were determined. There are 4 and 5 factors for Huanghua coastal areas and Anxin billabong areas, respectively.(3) The main meteorological factors affecting the occurrence time of Locusta migratoria were determined, i.e. the air temperature of March and April in spring and the air temperature and rainfall in winter.(4) The decrease extent of MODIS_NDVI in the Locusta migratoria harmful period could reflect its outbreaks extent for different years. The more the harmful extent, the less value the vegetation index. And NDVI in the 2nd dekday of May can be selected as one of the indexes for evaluating the feasible areas of Locusta migratoria incubation.(5) El Nino and La Nina events are not the main reason for outbreaks of Locusta migratoria in summer in Hebei Province, but they can cause the abnormal weather and climate in the locust regions, and affecting the locust outbreaks extent of some regions. The possibility of no outbreaks in coastal areas for Locusta migratoria in summer may be over 90% in the year with higher sunspot.(6) The operational service system of Locusta migratoria in summer for Hebei Province was set up, and includes three subsystems, i.e. query, prediction and counseling service. It provided a new system method for the research of entomic meteorology and agrometeorological service by the combination of database management of historical and real time meteorological and locust information with statistical analysis, forecasting and advisory services.