Impact Of Typhoon On Rice And Risk Analysis In China

Natural disaster occurred frequently in China, and typhoon is one of the greatest natural disasters in China. The rice is most main grain crop in Fujian which is influenced seriously by typhoon, so typhoon is one of the main meteorological disasters which influenced rice yields and quality. It is vital significant that research the impacts of rice by typhoon as case study in Fujian. Based on the typhoon data and rice data from 1971 to 2005 of 68 meteorology stations in Fujian, this article analysis the time-space laws of rice which influenced by typhoon. Taking wind velocity as index, this article analysis the rice zonation influenced by typhoon by the way of GIS and Suffer software. Taking the rice loss rate as index, thereby an assessment of rice loss caused by typhoon was made from 1971 to 2005.The results showed that:1.The numbers of typhoon is 75 from 1971 to 2005,the average number of typhoons influence Fujian is 2 per year. The typhoon occurred especially from July to September which is rice growth period. The Northwest track is the most typhoon track which occupies biggest in the total ways and its intensity is more great than others(besides West tracks).The typhoon intensity grade is serious in 70's early times, the 80's and the 90's later period.2.The paper appraised the impacts on rice by typhoon taking the rice loss rate as index. The results show that: the rice total yields and rice damaged condition have significant relevance with typhoon grade in every year. The rice productions always keep low level at the time of early times in 70's and 80's Twentieth Century when the typhoon is serious. The rice production begin grow fastly after 1986 along with typhoon reducing, continuously to the 21st century early time, along with the typhoon aggravates, the rice production assumes the drop tendency. The late rice loss is higher than early rice. The loss rate of late rice is 29% in more severe disaster year which reaches great disaster,meanwhile the loss rate of early rice is approximately 10%.The early rice loss present stage variation, it is divided into two stages taking 1986 as the transition. The mean loss rate is 23% from 1971 to 1986,at the same time, the loss is only 8.4% form 1987 to 2005.3.The risk results indicate that the research results accord with the actual situation and the regional distribution difference is remarkable. The Minnan double-crop rice area of Fujian namely borders on the Taiwan Straits is the high risk area which impacted by typhoon, Which is approximately composed one-fifth of rice planting area, mainly including Changle,Fuqing,Putian,Pingtan,Longhai,Zhangzhou and so on. The Northwest single-double-crop rice area is the general risk area, which is approximately composed one-fifth of rice planting area, mainly from Tuorong of north to Pinghe of south. The west and middle rice area namely far from the Taiwan Straits is the low risk area.4.The extremely high risk date mainly distributes first ten-day and last ten-day of the August, the first ten-day of August is the time of heading to flowering of early rice and the transplants of late rice, which is the sensitive time of early rice. The extremely low risk date mainly distributes late ten-day of the September and first ten-day of the October when late rice is heading which is the sensitive time of late rice.