Modeling Catastrophic Risk Of Precipitation And Premium Rating In Jilin Province

The big puzzledom of Agricultural insurance in china is the catastrophic risk resulted from weather, because the catarophic risk is correlated across space and the outcome is ususlly low frequency and high severity.Multiple peril crop insurance can not cover this risk, It is time to introduce advanced method to deal with this situation.This dissertation develops procedures for modeling catastrophic risk of extreme precipitation in Jilin province and makes premium rate.There are five chapters including 1) Introduction of background; 2)Summary of insurance in Agriculture; 3) An introduction and an application of Extreme Value Theory; 4) Premium rating and designing insurance contract; 5) Conclusion and further research.This article provides a statistical analysis for estimationg the tail risk through extreme value theory (EVT) and makes premium rates depending on mean excess loss function and EVT,and parametric method is the way we model the precipitation distribution.In addition to important implication on crop catastrophic insurance design ,this study can be applied to finance catastrophic risk and other related isuues.