Construction Of Individual-based Spatial Explicit Population Model

The management and conservation for wildlife population should consider the effects of multiple interweaving anthropogenic disturbances, such as poaching, habitat loss, landscape fragmentation and habitat degradation. Spatially explicit population models which link the population dynamics to landscape spatial pattern can simulate the change of animal population on real landscape and provide a novel approach to analyzing the response of animal populations to multiple anthropogenic disturbances. Based on the long-term research about the prey of Amur tiger-Panthera tigris altica in East Wanda Mountains, we adopt the spatial explicit approach to constructing the LAPS model.Integrating population dynamics, landscape process and vegetation dynamics, LAPS with the biological parameters, such as prey population parameters, habitat suitability parameters, habitat restoration parameters and environmental carrying capacity parameters simulates the processes-animal population reproduction, animal group movement, individual death, habitat disturbances and habitat restoration on daily, monthly or yearly scale based on the prey population ecology of Amur tiger and the animal-habitat interactions. LAPS also can integrate the database technology, GIS and the computer simulation technology. With the database technology, LAPS can manage the input parameters and the statistical output information such as landscape structure information, initial simulation information, yearly simulation information, and daily simulation information. Database technology makes the input and output process more convenient. LAPS integrated with GIS can explicitly exhibit the simulated spatial distribution of animal groups.Five incidental mortality scenarios and three carrying capacity scenarios were set by sensitivity analysis technology. The prey population dynamics from 1990 to 2001 was simulated under the interactions of these scenarios. The difference between the effects of incidental mortality and carrying capacity was compared by ANOVA and the spatial distribution of animal groups was spatially exhibited. The result showed that both the incidental mortality and carrying capacity had influence on population dynamics while the time-lagging effect of incidental mortality was larger. The simulated spatial distribution of animal groups showed that the population in shrub was denser than that in other habitat. The result was in accordance with field observation.