A MOP And 3S-Based Study About The Decision-Making Of The Forage-Livestock Balance For The Pastoral Areas In Gannan Prefecture

Gannan prefecture is one of the major pastoral areas in Gansu province, as well as a primary water source of Yellow river. Livestock husbandry is of great importance to local forage-livestock balance, the living of local herdsmen, and the development of regional economy. Since the decade of 1980s, the stability of grassland ecosystem and the sustainable development of grassland livestock husbandry were directly threatened by problems caused by rapid growth of population and overgrazing.As one of the digital agricultural thematic projects of National "863" program, the "Digital Management System for the Grassland and Livestock in the Pastoral Area of Gannan Prefecture" (2007AA10Z232) is intended to construct a web-based digital system for the monitoring and evaluation of grassland, diagnosis of the balance between forage and livestock, decision support and data sharing, which based on satellite remote sensing, field survey of livestock husbandry, and statistical annual for data acquisition, as well as 3S technology.With the funding of this program, current situation of the balance between forage and livestock in Gannan prefecture was analyzed, a model for forage-livestock balance was constructed with the mathematical approach of Multi-objective Programming, a management plan for grassland and livestock was made, and then the corresponding manage decision and method was proposed. The main contents of this study are:(1) An estimation of livestock carrying capacity from grassland and supplementary feeding in study area;(2) An analysis of current situation of local grassland livestock husbandry;(3) The proposing of a programming model for the forage-livestock balance of Gannan prefecture;(4) The testing of different plan that utilized for on different temporal and spatial scales.Study based on the planning period from 2009 to 2011 showed that:(1) Pastoral areas of Gannan prefecture are undergoing extensive overgrazing, as the overgrazing rate across the prefecture reached 60.80%, and in different counties in study area, it ranges from 20.49% to 91.77%; (2) under the prefecture scale, to solve the contradiction between grassland and livestock, the slaughtering rate of livestock should be increased for 9.66% for sheep,1.05% for goats, and 6.66% for cattle; (3) as the production value from livestock husbandry takes different amount of proportion in the production value from agriculture, different plan should be applied:when the livestock husbandry takes a greater part, influence caused by the decreasing of the size of herd will be more significant, and the aim of the plan will be keep a certain level of agriculture and livestock production value; when the livestock husbandry takes a lesser part, influence caused by the decreasing of the size of herd will not be so significant, and the aim of the plan is reach the state of forage-livestock balance as soon as possible; (4)besides the mentioned method, the methods of grazing prohibition, rest from grazing, reseeding, fertilization, planting of sown pasture, and increasing of supplementary feeding, will increase the livestock carrying capacity of pastoral areas; the income from policies of financial subsidy, the industry of tourism and livestock product processing, will offset the financial loss from decreasing the size of herd, as well as improving the economic condition of herdsmen.