Medium-and Long-term Remote Prediction System Of Apple Scab In Semi-Arid Plateau Of Weibei

Apple Scab is one of important diseases in apple producing areas of the world. The pathogen can infect fruit, leaf, flower, twig of apple causing early defoliation, reduction in production, and poor quality of fruit. In recent years, apple scab was becoming more serious in main apple production areas of China. It brought a great threat to apple production in China. Medium-and long-term remote prediction system of apple scab was studied in this research. The results were shown as following.1. Long-term prediction model of apple scab was established. Markov chain model and ANOVA periodic outer guess work model were constructed using data of apple scab epidemic level collected from 1997 to 2009 in arid plateau of weibei. The epidemic level of apple scab from 2010 to 2015 was predicted as 3, 3, 1, 2, 1, and 2, respectively, based on the models.2. According to investigation and research data of apple scab for several years, 11 models had been established including accumulation temperature model, growth of apple leaf area model, age of leaf model, number of leaf model, number of pseudothecium model, probit of maturity of ascospores model, land and release ascospores model, ascospore germination model, probit of infection of ascospores model, lesion number model and lesion expansion model, and with the thought of expert system, the medium-term prediction simulation model of apple scab has been formed.3. Based on web technologies, medium- and long-term prediction system of apple scab was established based on long- and medium- term prediction model using PHP, HTML/CSS, and JavaScript script languages. The system would provide technological support for diagnosis, prediction, decision, and inter-exchange of apple scab through Internet. The system would provide technological support to the decision-making at all level departments of government,and guide for the early identification, prediction and prevention of apple scab to apple farmers. Application of prevention and control of apple scab was realized through Internet, and a new extension model for prevention and control of pests.