Study On Spatio-Temporal Distribution Features And Forecast Of Drough Disaster In Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region

Drought has become the most widespread and the greatest economic losses natural disaster; it has a serious impact on agricultural production. Inner Mongolia belongs to arid and semi-arid regions, low annual precipitation, and the spatial and temporal distribution is very uneven, water shortage is much serious more and more, drought is the major natural disaster in this region, it has been seriously affected and restricted the social and economic sustainable development. Pay attention to the evaluation of regional drought, the spatial and temporal distribution of drought conditions, forecast for anti-drought, which provides relevant information and technical support, improving initiative and scientific in anti-drought, it is quite necessary to deal with the drought and water shortage problem.According to the needs of anti-drought, in order to analyze the basic characteristics, causes of drought, spatial-temporal distribution and prediction of drought in Inner Mongolia. Firstly, the basic characteristics and causes of drought in this region are summarized: drought is widespread, frequent and severe. With the time goes, the period of draught quite shortened, continuing, and the geographical differences are distinct, western is much higher than eastern, pastoral areas are severer than agricultural areas, disaster environment is complex. Atmospheric circulation is the main cause of drought; climate warming is one of factors of environmental effect, so that the period of drought shortened, social factors influence the process of drought, exacerbating drought development. The analysis of content is objective, rational, and comprehensive;Secondly, This paper investigated and analyzed the extent of damage and precipitation data in agriculture, animal husbandry, urban household and industrial aspects about 101 counties in Inner Mongolia between 1990 to 2007, using statistical calculation, the frequency analysis method, the drought (drought-prone season, drought level) temporal and spatial distribution and for distribution division was identified initially in Inner Mongolia, and three kinds of drought-prone season was determined including drought, spring and summer drought, spring and autumn drought, the frequency and distribution divisions of the three-level divisions drought levels (severe drought, moderate drought, mild drought). And the spatial and temporal distribution of drought is determined using the results rainfall data over the same period, the season of drought-prone and distribution is divided by the Mapinfo of GIS software. Thirdly, according to the time of drought occurred and disaster statistics of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from1990-2007, gray catastrophe theory is adopted, establishing the drought gray prediction model GM (1,1), analyzing the drought of autonomous regions in the next 15 years, forecasting more than four and four Union City in 2010, 2011, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2019 respectively, which will happen the drought, particularly heavy drought will be appeared in 2011,2019.Through the basic characteristics of drought, drought causes, spatial-temporal distribution, and drought prediction, the drought occurrence is mastered, and the allocation of water resources is planed effectively, the engineering measures are implemented scientifically, human resources are scheduled rationally, the disaster of drought will be minimized lowest. At the same time, it will warn and forecast early for next drought, monitoring and warning systems, anti-drought command and control system are established to provide relevant information and technical support.