| Objective: To study the relationship between the osteoporotic hip fracture in elderly women and the bone mineral density (BMD) of hip, proximal femur geometry (PFG), the body mass index(BMI), the left grip strength, the history of fracture. We try to establish an equation to predict the probability of the osteoporotic hip fracture in elderly women.Method: According to inclusion criteria and exclusion criteria, the elderly women diagnosed as the osteoporotic hip fracture in Shenzhen people' s hospital and others coming to the same hospital for physical examination are introduced to the case group and the control group respectively, including 30 women each. We examine the BMD of hip(normal side in the case and left side in the control) and neck-shaft angle(NSA), measure the left grip strength, then calculate the BMI according the height and weight. Meanwhile, we inquire about the individual history and the family history of osteoporotic fracture. By Logistic regression analysis, the risk factors are screened, the regression coefficients are standardized and the contribution of the risk factors is compared. By discriminant analysis, we establish an equation for prediction.Result: The BMD of the femoral neck and the ward area, theNSA , the BMI, the left grip strength and the fracture historyare different between the case and control in statistics(P< 0. 05). The BMD of the ward area, the NSA, the BMI and the leftgrip strength are the risk factors of the osteoporotic hipfracture in elderly women; The contribution of the risk factors to hip fracture is ranked as follows: BMI > NSA > BMD of the ward area > the left grip strength. The equation to predict the probability is:Yi=-8. 802*Xi+88. 803*X2+9. 936*X3+8. 119*X4+2. 634 *X5+22. 439*X6-691. 647, Y0=-9. 901*X,+93. 959*X2+15. 872*X3+8. 045 *X4+3.037*X5+23. 533*X6-696. 287. The specificity is 76. 7%, the sensitivity is 86.7% and the rates of prediction correctness is 81.7%.Conclusion: BMD of the hip, NSA, BMI and the left grip strength are the risk factors of osteoporotic hip fracture in the elderly women. We can calculate the probability of the risk of osteoporotic hip fracture in elderly women by discriminant equation. |
