Study On HFRS Epidemic Characteristic And Forecast Methods In Hebei Province

Objective: To arrange the epidemic data on human epidemic situation and host animals in Hebei province from 1981 to 2004, analyze epidemic characteristic of HFRS, explore diversity rule and establish feasible forecast method, and institute the strategy and measure of HFRS control and prevention.Methods: The database on the epidemic data of human and host animals were established with the SPSS13.0, and the database on the data of mouse individual case was established with the Epidata software. The SPSS13.0 was used to analyze all the databases and establish suitable predictive model of HFRS epidemic situation and forecast the epidemic situation in 2005.Results: 1 From 1981 to 2004, 47345 cases of HFRS were reported. The epidemic situation took on an ascending tendency from 1981 to 2004, in which 1986, 1999 and 2002 were three high peak years, and the incidence rates were 5.11/100,000(2847 cases), 7.60/100,000(4992 cases), 7.50/100,000(5252 cases). According to the month distribution of HFRS cases, the epidemic season of HFRS in Hebei province was from March to...